i know you dont wanna get on meds, if that is the case keep monitoring your hair by taking pictures, hopefully things will be fine. But remember you will regret if it progresses further as they say that regrowing is harder than maintenance, do your research on finasteride in the meantime in case you ever decide to get on meds.
well yes looking at family members is a good way to determine how your hair would be, but male pattern baldness can skip generations and i know a couple of guys who are balding but their brothers/ dads are just fine.
best of luck!!