we have a 58% chance of having HM in 5 years

[somone uk]

i am a bored maths student and with my free time i decided to take a more rational stand than to say "HM will be here in 5 years" or "HM will never happen" so i set off to find some data on clinical trials and finding the data that stated the probability of a product going from trial to market

unfortunately google was quite limited on actual data and i couldn't find anything near good data and i would imagine a full statistical analysis would be hard to come across (though i would be more than happy to recalculate if you can find some good data)

i got the data that was mentioned in this investopedia article that stated the probability of a drug making it from pre-phase to market being less than 1% ,phase 1 being 15%, phase 2 being 30% , phase 3 being 60% and a product passing final FDA approval being 90%

so assuming the sucesses are independent and that ARI and histogen are in phase 2 and Replicel is in phase 1
using the inclusion-exclusion principle the probibility is 58%

 

[Rnz]

Im OK with 50% but why 5 years and not 10 or 20?

 

[tonyj]

Did your analysis involve just the U.S. and Canada or did you include Europe, and Asian Countries?

 

[somone uk]

Im OK with 50% but why 5 years and not 10 or 20?

the projections the companies give, clinical trials are usually quite routine and you wouldn't usually find any delays that would extend the period to 10 or 20 years

What about Follica? Are they out of the picture now? (it wouldn't surprise me)

i didn't include follica because i am not convinced they are still alive
though someone on HLH states they have started phase 2 recently i couldn't really find any official confirmation or any mention from reputable sources

Did your analysis involve just the U.S. and Canada or did you include Europe, and Asian Countries?

i can't say either way, i nabbed some vague statistics from an investment website, non-vague data can be expensive and hard to find

 

[andrei_eremenko]

https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/

type there follica and you can get some infos.btw you should push "DE" for more details.

 

[somone uk]

hmm follica is phase 2

so that's 0.58 + 0.30 - 0.58*0.30

if we take follica into account that raises to probability to 70%

 

[somone uk]

i found this and i find it a more reliable source of information

from this the probability is 1-0.91*0.85*0.85*0.85 or 44%

frankly biotechs need more investment but the problem is that biotechs are usually a risky investment so people are discouraged meaning there is little innovation

 

[parsi]

Please notice that the pace of progress is logarithmic. 20 years ago you could heae a new discovery in this area after each 5 years. Then it has been shorter and shorter time between each new discovery.

Right now it is less that a year between each new and exciting discovery. I don't know if we can calculate that in the equation.

 

[somone uk]

Please notice that the pace of progress is logarithmic. 20 years ago you could heae a new discovery in this area after each 5 years. Then it has been shorter and shorter time between each new discovery.

Right now it is less that a year between each new and exciting discovery. I don't know if we can calculate that in the equation.

not really but surgical hair restoration is following the standard path of innovation which looks good for the next 10 or 20 years

from the data i have found if a company fails clinical trials they are more likely to succeed a second time.....eg if they engineer and enhance the treatment etc

i could say IF any companies happen to pass phase 2 the chances will roll in our favour
it's still 1 in 3 of a company passing phase 2 though, it's where most products fail
so fingers crossed now, it's where we need the most luck....

 

[DHR]

I'll stick to being a bored arts student.