This sounds funny and absurd at first glance, but this is a fact that I encountered. My roommates train hard in the gym, gaining muscle mass, but all the attention of the girls goes to me, a 50-pound guy with a cute face. The neighbors can't understand why gaining muscle mass doesn't attract girls and they are desperate and all the girls they liked end up in relationships with effeminate guys with long hair. I've also seen other posts in this thread where guys on HRT have had the same experience.
It seems to me that the balding alpha male type has the greatest chance of remaining an incel. He has a chance for a relationship with stupid girl with a primitive sense of taste, but this will not suit everyone.