New Press Release From Organ Technologies

[Hate da Bt]

Why do all people discuss prices? We should first pray for the success of tsuji before considering the issue of price. . Pray for baldness to end in 2020, guys.

Amen!

 

[kiwipilu]

Why do all people discuss prices? We should first pray for the success of tsuji before considering the issue of price. . Pray for baldness to end in 2020, guys.

such treatment will come in the future that's for sure now(short term) or later. So the question of price for the cure can always be asked. but like you say Let's pray for tsuji and that he is the one to succeed for our own sake.

 

[MrV88]

Jeff Bezos is bald and seems like he doesn't give a f***, he could pay Tsuji to become the first patient and would he do that? Not all bald guys give a f*** and if I hadn't done a FUE when I was 25 I would just shave it until something affordable is out. Sometimes people exaggerate this whole thing. I like the feeling of a shaved head, some should try it

A fat guy with hair is still not as sexy as a bald six-pack guy etc.

 

[Trichosan]

2018 is half gone in a flash, guys and 2019 will be upon us soon. Then, I hope Tsuji can or will reveal some expectations of what refinements in growth of the cells and delivery methods he foresees. The cost of gene sequencing was in the millions, then dropped dramatically. Dramatic discoveries such as hepatitis C treatment came about and became more affordable. But, in very specialized niches like dental implants, the price remains high. One dental implant only costs $6 to manufacture, but the finished product in the patient costs around $4,000. Tough, really to guess where Tsuji will be. As it was said, pray for wild success and more discovery in making it better.

 

[Btg]

it is impossible to know the cost since we dont really know how much it will costs tsuji himself the whole cloning process / patient ,
if the price is about paying for the graft placement it will drop quickly with clinics using assistants for this job .
But you can expect it to be overpriced at first , keep in mind people pay thousands of dollars for limited edition t-shirts that dont even look good , they definitely will pay for hair, but as the technology spreads they will have to appeal to a larger audience for max profit

 

[Trouse]

such treatment will come in the future that's for sure now(short term) or later. So the question of price for the cure can always be asked. but like you say Let's pray for tsuji and that he is the one to succeed for our own sake.

Honestly, with the glacially slow pace at which these treatments are going through trials and receiving approval, you might have to literally account for inflation when discussing possible prices. Regardless, it’s tough to give a reasonable price estimate when efficacy is still up in the air. It’s like having someone tell you a new luxury car manufacturer is coming in 2021 but you don’t know if that means luxury as in BMW quality or a Lamborghini, so there’s quite a bit of wiggle room.

 

[DanielDüsentrieb]

These numbers were mentioned as being the high costs required to restore a full nw1 head of full hair .. starting with a totally bald head, Bezos or Bruce Willis type of guy which require multiple procedures over years and large growing cell numbers to achieve ideal coverage and high density

This is the only procedure that can achieve this - so yes maybe Bezos will go for it he seems concerned by his looks and has the cash

So if we take the 137,000 USD that where given in this forum and do some calculation....

According to http://medicalhaircentre.com/Male-Treatment/Easy-Graft-Calculator:
Full head of hair from Norwood 6-7 is 21k hair.

According to https://www.hshairclinic.co.uk/hair-loss/graft-calculator/:
Full head of hair from Norwood 6-7 is 10k hair.

I think both of these websites mean full head as far as they can achieve. A Norwood 1 person has 100k-150k hair. The bald patches of a Norwood 6-7 Person is around half the former hair area. In the areas where the hair is gone the density in a Norwood 1 is higher than in the donor area. So it is a fair assumption to say 60k-90k hair are needed to restore a Norwood 6-7 to a Norwood 1.

So the price per hair from the given infos on this froum is between 1.5 and 2.25 USD if we assume they manage to get the density of a Norwood 1. That is incredible low if you compare to hairtransplant cost per graft in western world countries. (and yes i m aware of there is a difference between hair and graft)
If they are able to achieve the density of a normal fue tranplant than the cost range from 6.5 to 13.5 USD which is quit high.

So knowing how much the cost for going from Norwood 6-7 to Norwood 1 is useless without knowing how good the outcome will be.

 

[IncognitoMan]

Daniel, when you put it that way, it makes it seem like $137k is cheap! There's a lot of hair to restore for a Norwood 6-7.

I think it's unfair to compare this to a sports car or limited edition t-shirt. Once you have your hair restored, it won't have any resell value. My father buys and trades Ferraris. It took him several years to get in the "Ferrari club" as they call it. But, he buys a new Ferrari every 10-12 months, and trades his old one in.... and he usually MAKES money on the trade in. The dealers can sell his used Ferrari to someone who doesn't want to wait 2+ years on the waiting list. So, people are willing to pay $40-60k above MSRP for no wait. Of course, the $350k they just spent on a Ferrari still holds much of it's value.

All that said, if there are 5MM millionaires in the US alone, and Tsuji is only going to treat 10k patients in the first year, then that is only 0.2% of the US millionaire population. Seems like the waiting list for Tsuji will be MUCH longer than the waiting list for a Ferrari lol.

 

[br1]

Daniel, when you put it that way, it makes it seem like $137k is cheap! There's a lot of hair to restore for a Norwood 6-7.

I think it's unfair to compare this to a sports car or limited edition t-shirt. Once you have your hair restored, it won't have any resell value. My father buys and trades Ferraris. It took him several years to get in the "Ferrari club" as they call it. But, he buys a new Ferrari every 10-12 months, and trades his old one in.... and he usually MAKES money on the trade in. The dealers can sell his used Ferrari to someone who doesn't want to wait 2+ years on the waiting list. So, people are willing to pay $40-60k above MSRP for no wait. Of course, the $350k they just spent on a Ferrari still holds much of it's value.

All that said, if there are 5MM millionaires in the US alone, and Tsuji is only going to treat 10k patients in the first year, then that is only 0.2% of the US millionaire population. Seems like the waiting list for Tsuji will be MUCH longer than the waiting list for a Ferrari lol.

if they are industrializing the process, by creating machines/equipment like they just said in the press release, then it's fair to assume they will license it to many clinics.

 

[Hate da Bt]

So if we take the 137,000 USD that where given in this forum and do some calculation....

According to http://medicalhaircentre.com/Male-Treatment/Easy-Graft-Calculator:
Full head of hair from Norwood 6-7 is 21k hair.

According to https://www.hshairclinic.co.uk/hair-loss/graft-calculator/:
Full head of hair from Norwood 6-7 is 10k hair.

I think both of these websites mean full head as far as they can achieve. A Norwood 1 person has 100k-150k hair. The bald patches of a Norwood 6-7 Person is around half the former hair area. In the areas where the hair is gone the density in a Norwood 1 is higher than in the donor area. So it is a fair assumption to say 60k-90k hair are needed to restore a Norwood 6-7 to a Norwood 1.

So the price per hair from the given infos on this froum is between 1.5 and 2.25 USD if we assume they manage to get the density of a Norwood 1. That is incredible low if you compare to hairtransplant cost per graft in western world countries. (and yes i m aware of there is a difference between hair and graft)
If they are able to achieve the density of a normal fue tranplant than the cost range from 6.5 to 13.5 USD which is quit high.

So knowing how much the cost for going from Norwood 6-7 to Norwood 1 is useless without knowing how good the outcome will be.

Hair transplants are charged per graft, which is on average 2.1 hairs.
60,000/2.1= ~30,000 grafts would be required.
2,000x5$ + 28,000x3$= 94,000$ would be the total cost, if Hasson and Wong were to perform an FUT. (https://hassonandwong.com/hair-transplant-surgery/hair-transplant-cost/)

 

[IncognitoMan]

if they are industrializing the process, by creating machines/equipment like they just said in the press release, then it's fair to assume they will license it to many clinics.

According to ISHRS (http://www.ishrs.org/statistics-research.htm), there was approx 635k hair restoration procedures done worldwide. Reports have said there's around 16.5MM millionaires worldwide. If we assume 1/3 of those millionaires are bald, and Tsuji can replace all hair restoration procedures, then they will only need 11.5% of the millionaires each year opting for surgery. If only 1/2 of the bald millionaires opt for Tsuji, that would put the waiting list past 4 years. Obviously, a ton of assumptions... but some interesting numbers, nonetheless.

 

[dermrafok]

According to ISHRS (http://www.ishrs.org/statistics-research.htm), there was approx 635k hair restoration procedures done worldwide. Reports have said there's around 16.5MM millionaires worldwide. If we assume 1/3 of those millionaires are bald, and Tsuji can replace all hair restoration procedures, then they will only need 11.5% of the millionaires each year opting for surgery. If only 1/2 of the bald millionaires opt for Tsuji, that would put the waiting list past 4 years. Obviously, a ton of assumptions... but some interesting numbers, nonetheless.

Then it's fair to assume they will license it to many clinics. That's the point.

 

[DanielDüsentrieb]

Hair transplants are charged per graft, which is on average 2.1 hairs.
60,000/2.1= ~30,000 grafts would be required.
2,000x5$ + 28,000x3$= 94,000$ would be the total cost, if Hasson and Wong were to perform an FUT. (https://hassonandwong.com/hair-transplant-surgery/hair-transplant-cost/)

So what is your point?
94k for a treatment that will leave you with a big scar and the fear you have to expose that scar some day if your hairloss keeps progressing compared to 137k for a new inovativ treatment that will let you keep all your donor density is still extrem cheap. And there are way more expensive hairtransplants than Hasson and Wong

 

[IncognitoMan]

Then it's fair to assume they will license it to many clinics. That's the point.

Yes, I agree that's the point. However, how quickly can this procedure surpass the worldwide total hair restoration procedures? I am just saying it's possible there will be more demand than supply within the first 3-5 years. So, even if it does come out out in 2021, I may not even be able to get this procedure done until 2025... even if I have $137k saved by 2021!

 

[Johnt1997]

This might sound incredibly naive but maybe the price will be 150k but only for a short period of time(a year or two). Plenty of people can afford this and this will allow them to make lots and lots of money very fast. They can bring down price rapidly after this point to make money of the average guy(the millions)

 

[Hate da Bt]

So what is your point?
94k for a treatment that will leave you with a big scar and the fear you have to expose that scar some day if your hairloss keeps progressing compared to 137k for a new inovativ treatment that will let you keep all your donor density is still extrem cheap. And there are way more expensive hairtransplants than Hasson and Wong

You can't get a 30,000-graft hair transplant. Period.
I just showed you that a 30,000-graft hair transplant would cost less than 100,000$.
Nothing more, nothing less.
The surgeon's involvement in OGT treatment should be way less than in an FUT or an FUE procedure. They would just excise the few-centimeter-long donor scalp tissue and inject the germs into the bald(ing) areas.
That's less than 94,000$, isn't it?

 

[BalderBaldyBald]

You can't get a 30,000-graft hair transplant. Period.
I just showed you that a 30,000-graft hair transplant would cost less than 100,000$.
Nothing more, nothing less.
The surgeon's involvement in OGT treatment should be way less than in an FUT or an FUE procedure. They would just excise the few-centimeter-long donor scalp tissue and inject the germs into the bald(ing) areas.
That's less than 94,000$, isn't it?

You forgot about nylon threads (still not confirmed by Tsuji)

Makes sense for the cost. People need to remember that the hairs still need to be transplanted by a surgeon. Were talking about Japan here, not Turkey. One of the most developed countries in the world with one of the highest cost of living. Taking a nw6/7 to a nw0 with dense packing of grafts is gonna be expensive as hell. Also I recall that a while back there was a statement that only vetted proven skilled hair transplants surgeons initially will be the ones performing.

Yes, exactly, they stated that only trained surgeons by Riken will do the procedure at the beginning, i'm trying to find again this statement, but it's 90% sure.
If you bring such product to market, you can't have any scammer and improvised surgeon ruining it with shady transplants...well at least not the first years.
Only trained and approved surgeons will have access to Tsuji's HM.
I guess most famous surgeons will line-up for that training and seal of approval.

 

[Hate da Bt]

You forgot about nylon threads (still not confirmed by Tsuji)

Ahahahahaha
How could I?

 

[Omega2327]

No offense, but you have heavily cherry-picked info here.

"According to our Global 2000 list, there are 1,922 publicly traded companies in the world with sales of $1 billion or more. (data as of May 2013). See G2K sorted by sales rank on Forbes"

It then immediately says:

"There are hundreds more privately held firms in the world with sales north of $1 billion. Our Largest Private Companies list has 220 U.S. firms all with revenue above $2 billion."

C'mon, man. You seriously expect me to believe you missed that part somehow?

Mars Candy Co. makes over 1 Billion and you think a company offering full heads of hair couldn't hit that when regular transplants that will be child's play by comparison already can charge a down payment on a house's worth per patient?

You doubt Organ Tech could pull in over 1 Billion in its first year when Forbes lists 220 private firms in the USA alone with over TWO billion in sales?

Ridiculous.

I will preface this by saying that I DO NOT f*****g KNOW WHAT TSUJI WILL CHARGE. But neither does anyone here. I was merely giving my opinion on what I felt like was reasonable. When it starts getting too high for even me to consider... that’s when I get a bit skeptical...

And Jesus about the public companies, I simply threw that in there as a gut check, I wasn’t trying to cherry pick information or mislead anyone. Your candy comparison (even if made comically) makes no sense whatsoever because nearly everyone in the world like candy, can afford it, and lives close to a store that sells it.

That is not the heart of my argument - it was merely a gut check.. And I just gotta say it seems like some of you guys are so warped with the way you think. Not every person that is bald cares as much as we do... Some of you talk about how many millionaires there are in the US but you have to look at it from all angles. Also for all these “IN THE US ALONE” comments let’s please remember the fact that the US comprises of 25% of the global GDP.... Also understand that to be a millionaire simply means that your net assets are greater than $1M. My parents are easily millionaires with their savings. Most of these millionaires are 50+ years of age with families, the vast majority of which don’t give a sh*t whether they’re bald or not to the point they would jump through all the hoops to drop $150K on a baldness treatment. I am from a city in Texas that has one of the highest millionaire per capita ratios in the state. So many of my parents friends are bald millionaires with families and I could not even begin to imagine a single one of them caring enough about this treatment. You guys throw buying a car around like it’s a f*****g apples to apples comparison but it’s not at all. A car is a staple collectible, a very common hobby you can share with your friends whereas an advanced medical touristic cosmetic treatment like this is SO different. How many of these old dudes buying cars do you think would purposefully travel to Japan and drop $140K on plastic surgery for example JUST to improve their appearance. Yes I know there are people that pay for hair transplants but it’s much more socially acceptable to get one and spend $5K on it vs. flying to Japan TWICE, dropping $150K and looking like a complete narcissist to all who know you (at that age in particular where most would actually be able to afford it). Yes, I’m sure that there are plenty out there that will... but you cannot say that 10,000 people will FOR SURE be chomping at the bit to drop this kind of dough. Where do you draw the line?! Are you gonna say the same thing if Tsuji charges $500K? $1M..? sh*t, Organ Tech and RIKEN may be the next f*****g Amazon for all we know!

Skimming through the comments I also saw some “if only .01% of millionaires got this, then that alone would be enough!” which is total hogwash. You can say that about starting a company and if “ Ohh if small enough % of people buy my product, I will be a multi-millionaire!” It’s very easy to arbitrarily throw around seemingly small percentages to make them look reasonable when in actuality.... they probably aren’t

 

[DanielDüsentrieb]

I will preface this by saying that I DO NOT f*****g KNOW WHAT TSUJI WILL CHARGE. But neither does anyone here. I was merely giving my opinion on what I felt like was reasonable. When it starts getting too high for even me to consider... that’s when I get a bit skeptical...

And Jesus about the public companies, I simply threw that in there as a gut check, I wasn’t trying to cherry pick information or mislead anyone. Your candy comparison (even if made comically) makes no sense whatsoever because nearly everyone in the world like candy, can afford it, and lives close to a store that sells it.

That is not the heart of my argument - it was merely a gut check.. And I just gotta say it seems like some of you guys are so warped with the way you think. Not every person that is bald cares as much as we do... Some of you talk about how many millionaires there are in the US but you have to look at it from all angles. Also for all these “IN THE US ALONE” comments let’s please remember the fact that the US comprises of 25% of the global GDP.... Also understand that to be a millionaire simply means that your net assets are greater than $1M. My parents are easily millionaires with their savings. Most of these millionaires are 50+ years of age with families, the vast majority of which don’t give a sh*t whether they’re bald or not to the point they would jump through all the hoops to drop $150K on a baldness treatment. I am from a city in Texas that has one of the highest millionaire per capita ratios in the state. So many of my parents friends are bald millionaires with families and I could not even begin to imagine a single one of them caring enough about this treatment. You guys throw buying a car around like it’s a f*****g apples to apples comparison but it’s not at all. A car is a staple collectible, a very common hobby you can share with your friends whereas an advanced medical touristic cosmetic treatment like this is SO different. How many of these old dudes buying cars do you think would purposefully travel to Japan and drop $140K on plastic surgery for example JUST to improve their appearance. Yes I know there are people that pay for hair transplants but it’s much more socially acceptable to get one and spend $5K on it vs. flying to Japan TWICE, dropping $150K and looking like a complete narcissist to all who know you (at that age in particular where most would actually be able to afford it). Yes, I’m sure that there are plenty out there that will... but you cannot say that 10,000 people will FOR SURE be chomping at the bit to drop this kind of dough. Where do you draw the line?! Are you gonna say the same thing if Tsuji charges $500K? $1M..? sh*t, Organ Tech and RIKEN may be the next f*****g Amazon for all we know!

Skimming through the comments I also saw some “if only .01% of millionaires got this, then that alone would be enough!” which is total hogwash. You can say that about starting a company and if “ Ohh if small enough % of people buy my product, I will be a multi-millionaire!” It’s very easy to arbitrarily throw around seemingly small percentages to make them look reasonable when in actuality.... they probably aren’t

I guess your point of view is right. And if I were slick bald and have the money and time to do the procedure i probably wouldn t because it is strange to come back from a norwood 7. Everyone would assume me having a midlife crisis or something... Thats why I will get a fue when it is certain that tsuji works so it gives me more time till i need to undergo the Tsuji process.