Realistic Expectations For Art Tsuji And Riken
- Thread starter Jonnyyy
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Blackber
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There’s probably 5 threads about this already plus the interview HairLossTalk.com had with the Tsuji team.
Well just from the information we do have I want to see how much realistic information we can gather up, hopefully people will also reply on this thread after the hairloss conference in Japan later this month too.
Can you link them to me, I just want this to be clarified a lot better.
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Reading posts from 2004 that were convinced that Intercytex or Aderans was going to save us by 2010 at the latest are the biggest blackpill ever. My guess is that in 2030 it will still only be minoxidil and finasteride available. It is up to Tsuji and any other company to prove their treatment works.
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In 2004 all the crap was still in pre-clinicals or phase 1 so there is a measurable difference.
Tsuji getting from pre clinicals to market release in 3 years is probably a bit unrealistic. They still have engineering problems to solve. Complicated problems always seem simpler going in and us engineers are optimists. It is really easy to under scope these kinds of problems.
Well you have to remember our knowledge of hairloss was peanuts compared to about it now, and our technology only gets better and better, if it's not Tsuji it'll be somebody else, eventually it'll happen, and I think it's almost impossible for minoxidil and finasteride to be the only solutions in 2030, with all the things coming in the next few years.
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And in a few more years what we know now will be peanuts compared to what they will know then. There will always be scientists who discover more about what could cause hair loss. So far it hasn't translated into new treatments. I would like to believe that technology is getting better and better but what technological progression in hair loss treatment have we had since finasteride was approved? I will believe that all these new things are coming in the next few years when they actually come out and don't slip into vaporware next 5 years territory like Histogen. I know I sound negative, but I am just skeptical since I have seen a lot of big talk and promises and "cure for baldness soon" 5 o clock news specials and so far nothing concrete. I hope to be proven wrong and that there will be great treatments in next 5 years but that remains to be seen.
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In Biotech in general, only 30 percent of Phase 2 general trials make it to Phase 3 and then to market. I really hope that the engineering problems do not prove to be insurmountable to Tsuji like they have for many companies and researchers before. https://www.bio.org/sites/default/f...6-2015 - BIO, Biomedtracker, Amplion 2016.pdf
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The science is only useful insofar as it can give us a better practical way of growing hair in this case. How many times has science found something that grew hair in mice, or could cause hair loss, or could regrow hair if more studies were done., but nothing came of it because no one got down to brass tacks and actually tried to create a product around it? Science is only the first step.
thomps1523
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This is exactly why threads like this are useless, you have two types of people... those who pretend like how fast science and technology developed 20 years ago reflects the speed it will develop today, or the over optimists. Bottom line is nobody knows, but we are certainly much closer now to getting treatments released from companies like sheisido, and follica than any of the companies this cat named back in 2004.
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Hey I hope you are right. But I will only "believe" in these companies and their treatments once they are out and regrowing some hair on my head.
thomps1523
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Oh I completely understand that, but realistically tech and science are propelling forward at rates that make it impossible to anticipate the future based on the past. It's wait and see for all of us, but predictions are just guesses based on our mood regarding hairloss. If we feel doomed we'll declare doom and gloom, if it isn't eating at us as bad we look forward with optimism.
bigentries
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What kind of knowledge about hairloss do we have now that wasn't available in 2004? The only thing I remember is the PGD2 theory, and that was challenged a few months after it was published
Outside of huge advancements in Alopecia Aerate, I can't pin point a single big discovery about male pattern baldness in the last decade
Outside of huge advancements in Alopecia Aerate, I can't pin point a single big discovery about male pattern baldness in the last decade
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Let me pin point it for you, then.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_pluripotent_stem_cell
The ability to induce adult stem cells to become pluripotent was demonstrated in 2006.
This technology forms the basis for our ability to grow and culture various types of cells.
This is literally the foundation upon which Shiseido and Riken are developing their work.
Just because people dreamt of culturing/cloning follicles well in the past, that doesn't mean it's an idea that has been seriously visited. We lacked the tools to do it, previously.
So what have we learned thanks to this technology? Well we can now probe the behavior and cellular signaling of stem cell niches within the follicle and the role they play in hair cycling as well as in the development of new hair follicles. We can probe means to modifying, enchancing or changing the composition of said niches and see of they have an effect on hair growth. We can try to look at the niche differences between balding scalps and non balding scalps to elucidate what is missing, etc.
Your best bet is probably to forget about Tsuji for the time being. Wait until they start human trials before getting excited, especially for a release date. It will be very expensive at first if it makes it to market.
It's not a cure, but I'm more excited for Follica. At least they've had human trials and have a website (the site alone doesn't mean much, but considering Cotsarelis's generally secretive attitude, and most companies staying mum until close to release, it shows they're confidence in making it to market). Plus, it will be available in the US first unlike Tsuji and Shiseido's potential treatments.
It's not a cure, but I'm more excited for Follica. At least they've had human trials and have a website (the site alone doesn't mean much, but considering Cotsarelis's generally secretive attitude, and most companies staying mum until close to release, it shows they're confidence in making it to market). Plus, it will be available in the US first unlike Tsuji and Shiseido's potential treatments.
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I hope the same for Tsuji, best case scenario they will release in 2020, commercially available in the us hopefully a few years later and not too expensive by 2025, that's if everything goes right.
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If anything, Replicel is exactly the Intercytex and Aderans situation. They can't execute if their lives depended on it. They're out of money and should be out of business by now, if it weren't for their partnerships. Just as the aforementioned failed companies, Replicel has also shown phase 1 type results. This is why I am happy that the baton is passed on to Shiseido. Replicel doesn't have the gusto to accomplish sh*t, but whether it is Intercytex, Aderans, or Replicel, the fundamental approach has always been decent. But ability to manage cash burn rate, secure funding, minimize risk, identify market, all that jazz - you know, business, has been god f*****g awful. Whoooo! Go Shiseido! You can do it!