Replicel Is On Fire Lately — Data In Feb.

[That Guy]

Pretty obvious to see the viability of this product in the hair transplant industry, which is a mult-billion dollar industry itself. You already have these patients investing $10k+ to maintain their hair, an extra $1500 for a yearly cell based therapy to maintain their results is an easy sell. They already do this with PRP and it’s way less promising and exciting as a therapy.

Is this the next Keytruda? Obviously not, but it’s potential is enough to help sustain a small biotechs program, which includes another potential indication that can be sold by the same sales force to similar doctors (mostly derms / cosmetic surgeons).

No. A product that would exist only in Asia and, in its present state, only maintains hair for a few months and requires a biopsy is not viable. Especially not when a pill is on the market that can sustain hair for many years, if not indefinitely.

"but muuuuh" No. You mistake the desperation of certain demographics willingness to pay for anything with "viability".

First off, there is nothing on paper (market research) showing that enough of the population would be willing/able to pay for this. Secondly, even if they did, it doesn't matter anyway; they cannot continuously administer the treatment and the cost of doing so would far exceed finasteride, transplants, etc. in a pretty short amount of time.

Consider that Aderans' technology, a decade ago, was able to maintain hair indefinitely and still was scrapped.

 

[clams]

No. A product that would exist only in Asia and, in its present state, only maintains hair for a few months and requires a biopsy is not viable. Especially not when a pill is on the market that can sustain hair for many years, if not indefinitely.

"but muuuuh" No. You mistake the desperation of certain demographics willingness to pay for anything with "viability".

First off, there is nothing on paper (market research) showing that enough of the population would be willing/able to pay for this. Secondly, even if they did, it doesn't matter anyway; they cannot continuously administer the treatment and the cost of doing so would far exceed finasteride, transplants, etc. in a pretty short amount of time.

Consider that Aderans' technology, a decade ago, was able to maintain hair indefinitely and still was scrapped.

The average consumers of hair transplants are not as savvy as a pessimistic, forum-dwelling autist like yourself. It’s all about how you sell the product. You’d have these hair transplant doctors recommending it along with the transplant. Again, I point you to the widespread use of PRP in the hair transplant industry. The fact is most people trust doctors and their recommendations, and derms/cosmetics in particular make a killing off of that trust. They’d love to sell a patient on a $1500 dollar add-on procedure even if in reality that patient could get the same results from a 10 dollar finasteride prescription.

Plus, it does fit within the current treatment paradigm of “throwing everything at it.” Doctors overwhelmingly agree that maintaining your current hair is the best long-term treatment for this disease. Even with the current data that we have, if you have the means, it would make sense to use this therapy along with finasteride/min.

It would be a great drug to partner or sell to a niche derm player, somebody like Dermira or Bausch that already has a national sales force targeting the same doctors. It’d cost very little to market with the sales infrastructure already in place and it’s very easy to see it bringing in 50-100 million annually.

Its not the paradigm shifting drug we want as patients, but its definitely not dead like you want to make it out to be. They’re at least going to try to optimize it in a phase 2b. The other thing to mention here is that phase 3 derm trials are not that expensive, or at least they don’t have to be. If they were to get this on the market in Japan and continue to build out the safety profile, it would be a relatively low financial bar to get it to NDA in the US.

 

[That Guy]

The average consumers of hair transplants are not as savvy as a pessimistic, forum-dwelling autist like yourself. It’s all about how you sell the product. You’d have these hair transplant doctors recommending it along with the transplant. Again, I point you to the widespread use of PRP in the hair transplant industry. The fact is most people trust doctors and their recommendations, and derms/cosmetics in particular make a killing off of that trust. They’d love to sell a patient on a $1500 dollar add-on procedure even if in reality that patient could get the same results from a 10 dollar finasteride prescription.

Plus, it does fit within the current treatment paradigm of “throwing everything at it.” Doctors overwhelmingly agree that maintaining your current hair is the best long-term treatment for this disease. Even with the current data that we have, if you have the means, it would make sense to use this therapy along with finasteride/min.

It would be a great drug to partner or sell to a niche derm player, somebody like Dermira or Bausch that already has a national sales force targeting the same doctors. It’d cost very little to market with the sales infrastructure already in place and it’s very easy to see it bringing in 50-100 million annually.

Its not the paradigm shifting drug we want as patients, but its definitely not dead like you want to make it out to be. They’re at least going to try to optimize it in a phase 2b. The other thing to mention here is that phase 3 derm trials are not that expensive, or at least they don’t have to be. If they were to get this on the market in Japan and continue to build out the safety profile, it would be a relatively low financial bar to get it to NDA in the US.

Once again, you are failing to grasp the fact that "some people might pay for it" and "marketing can fool people" =/= "viable" because there are other logistics and market concerns involved.

There are also actual standards for these things' efficacy, even with Japan's laws.

Laser combs and PRP may not really do anything, but they are safe(ish) and easily repeated or manufactured indefinitely and able to sell for a reasonable price; it is profitable.

Something which requires a biopsy, and you do not have infrastructure to store these samples indefinitely (which would be a logistical nightmare and jack up the price of the treatment significantly) to provide no regrowth and only a few months sustainability means that even if they could repeat it, it would cost you likely THOUSANDS each time! But as it stands, they cannot even do that. They aren't going to have repeat customers, and the results are not worth the (perpetual) cost when finasteride is available in monthly/yearly supply for cheap and has lasting results.

When you look at that, and what your competitors at home and abroad are nearly ready to release, there is just no way any Shiseido executive or investor with two brain cells to rub together looks at this RCH-01 thing and goes "oh yeah, let's throw millions at this!"

I know that you don't want to believe it, but that really is how it is. They don't care about you and your hair — they care about their shekels.

 

[clams]

Once again, you are failing to grasp the fact that "some people might pay for it" and "marketing can fool people" =/= "viable" because there are other logistics and market concerns involved.

There are also actual standards for these things' efficacy, even with Japan's laws.

Laser combs and PRP may not really do anything, but they are safe(ish) and easily repeated or manufactured indefinitely and able to sell for a reasonable price; it is profitable.

Something which requires a biopsy, and you do not have infrastructure to store these samples indefinitely (which would be a logistical nightmare and jack up the price of the treatment significantly) to provide no regrowth and only a few months sustainability means that even if they could repeat it, it would cost you likely THOUSANDS each time! But as it stands, they cannot even do that. They aren't going to have repeat customers, and the results are not worth the (perpetual) cost when finasteride is available in monthly/yearly supply for cheap and has lasting results.

When you look at that, and what your competitors at home and abroad are nearly ready to release, there is just no way any Shiseido executive or investor with two brain cells to rub together looks at this RCH-01 thing and goes "oh yeah, let's throw millions at this!"

I know that you don't want to believe it, but that really is how it is. They don't care about you and your hair — they care about their shekels.

Don’t mistake your pessimism for rationality. You’ve provided a bunch of weak points and baseless conjecture. It’s 2020, lots hair transplant offices are going to have -70s on-site, and Replicel already claims to have an economically feasible plan for off-site storage. I have personally shipped bio-samples as recently as a year ago and I believe them, it surprisingly affordable and routinely done by both Fedex/UPS.

There’s simply a lot going for the product. It’s flashy science and procedure-based, that makes it an easy sell and expensive. That’s a combo doctors love. They also have this unique Japanese pathway that could allow them to charge customers while building out the safety profile, keeping development costs low. The efficacy data we currently have is not nearly as bad as you want to make it out to be, and there are very logical ways to potentially optimize the product. The safety data is spotless. You’re just dead wrong calling this product dead. There are niche cosmetic derm companies with national sales teams in place that could start selling this immediately for very little overhead. There is a 100% chance they continue with development.

 

[soull]

In the hypothetical case that replicel goes on sale I would prove it with the following requirements.

1. maintenance 2 years
2. reasonable recovery rate of miniaturized hair
3. 20% regeneration
4. I don't have to travel to Japan every year for biopsies.

If this is not the case (not necessarily as I said, but with a slightly lower margin I would also accept) I do not see it as viable. I repeat, I do not see it as viable for me. But I have to say that I would be very happy if it were commercialized.

 

[Throwaway94]

I don't know about replicel themselves though, what's their time frame of launch for RCH? Since we'll have to wait for them to get it in the west.

Replicel are a long, long, long way away. They'd need licensing deals with companies in the West to make this happen, they simply don't have the resources to push this through by themselves even with the dermal injector.

 

[max310]

Without the long useless talk as it bothers my sensitive feelings. At 8% this solution has died and buried already. A mod should please close this thread. This replicel whatever. Is junk. And made for the junk.

Removing this thread from my account.

Next.....

 

[That Guy]

Don’t mistake your pessimism for rationality. You’ve provided a bunch of weak points and baseless conjecture

LMFAO

Then, you immediately follow up with

It’s 2020

It's current year!

Such a strong point!

You have done nothing to discredit the points I have brought up. Which are just business 101 talking points really.

I have said in this thread that I do not believe the RCH-01 technology is a bust, but the Japs' attempt at commercializing it obviously is because they obviously fucked up or something in getting shittier results. Also, I distinctly remember, years ago, them listing in the clinical trial info (it's somewhere way back in this very thread) that this would be multiple-injections and all that. So they've even gone so far as to lie about the details of the trial.

There's just no way Shiseido brings this to market, and most likely — they can't even if they wanted to. With these results and pre-requisites, it is not viable.

It would have to be up to a European company or something now to buy the tech from Replolcel and trial it elsewhere. Which would mean it would be YEARS away yet, and I seriously doubt anyone is going to look at this after Shiseido's trial and take the investment risk.

 

[That Guy]

Without the long useless talk as it bothers my sensitive feelings. At 8% this solution has died and buried already. A mod should please close this thread. This replicel whatever. Is junk. And made for the junk.

Removing this thread from my account.

Next.....

So remove it from your account and stfu. I really don't get you people...

 

[Armando Jose]

At 8% this solution has died and buried already.

Doctors overwhelmingly agree that maintaining your current hair is the best long-term treatment for this disease

Maintaining you current hair is a 0% solution?

Conflicting

 

[Joxy]

LMFAO

Then, you immediately follow up with



It's current year!

Such a strong point!

You have done nothing to discredit the points I have brought up. Which are just business 101 talking points really.

I have said in this thread that I do not believe the RCH-01 technology is a bust, but the Japs' attempt at commercializing it obviously is because they obviously fucked up or something in getting shittier results. Also, I distinctly remember, years ago, them listing in the clinical trial info (it's somewhere way back in this very thread) that this would be multiple-injections and all that. So they've even gone so far as to lie about the details of the trial.

There's just no way Shiseido brings this to market, and most likely — they can't even if they wanted to. With these results and pre-requisites, it is not viable.

It would have to be up to a European company or something now to buy the tech from Replolcel and trial it elsewhere. Which would mean it would be YEARS away yet, and I seriously doubt anyone is going to look at this after Shiseido's trial and take the investment risk.

Japanese didn’t f*** anything. Trials were done by multi-billion company and credible scientists also trained by Replicel scientists. In simple words. That is the max potentional of this technology.

 

[That Guy]

Japanese didn’t f*** anything. Trials were done by multi-billion company and credible scientists also trained by Replicel scientists. In simple words. That is the max potentional of this technology.

They definitely fucked up lol

The first phase trial was dramatically better results.

It doesn't matter, though. This isn't coming out, and just about no one here is going to be able to afford even a transplant in the coming years as the global economy collapses and we're staring down mass unemployment and potentially hyper-inflation. You're also unlikely to be permitted to travel to get these done anyway.

 

[That Guy]

Nice opinion bro.

Far more sensible than yours, which amount to "Just believe, bro"

 

[Spanishboy97]

No your opinion was based on unrealistic expectations. "Omg it didn't turn a NW5 in a NW1, Such a fail bro!"

Mine is based on reality.

"We are very pleased that the data from this randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, dose-ranging clinical study of 65 patients (male and female) with pattern hair loss confirms, with statistical significance, the observations from our ph 1 trial in a larger cohort of patients including females, a wide variety of ages and hair loss, and compared with a placebo-control. In summary, the study produced a statistically significant and clinically meaningful increase in hair density and diameter as measured nine months after treatment,” stated RepliCel’s Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Rolf Hoffman.

Btw, shiseido updated their site in february this year, let's look what they say:

In recent years, technology has evolved remarkably, particularly in the development of digital technology and various devices that are greatly changing our lives. We apply these technological trends using our strengths to offer personalization and e-commerce counseling which allow customers to choose the skincare and makeup items that suit them without going to a store.
We also pursue hair regenerative medicine and create new beauty solutions that support skin health and beauty from the inside through food.

https://corp.shiseido.com/en/rd/development/

Now let's read the conclusions of the actual new study:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0190962220302723

Conclusion
The results suggest that cell therapy with autologous DSC cells may be useful as a new therapeutic method for treating MPHL and FPHL.


"Bu..bu it's not coming out bro, they couldn't regrow a NW5 to NW1! Complete failure bro!"

To be fair it wont make a Nw3 a Nw2 either

 

[Marcaronii]

To be fair it wont make a Nw3 a Nw2 either

It wont make a NW2 to NW3 either if it offers maintenance.

 

[MrV88]

True, but maintenance even for 6 months alone without f*****g with your hormones is a miracle imo.

Ain't the problem that you need about 50-100 grafts for a treatment and it this just lasts just 9 months instead of forever, like Replicel said in the first place?. So you would lose hair just to maintain the rest. And you have to fly to Japan, take the biopsy, fly back, wait and fly again to Tokyo for this crap.

This sh*t is done in my eyes, sad that it won't last forever.

 

[Hswb]

You have to be trolling. Nobody cares about having the same amount of hair for 6 months longer. Minoxidil maintains for 2 years without touching your hormones. CB maintains for over a year without any side effects. Stemoxydine and redensyl maintain for 6 months. There are tons of things that maintain your hair for 6 months including doing absolutely nothing. Even the control group's 6 month loss is so minimal you wouldn't notice it.

Speak for yourself. I DO care about keeping the same hair for 6 months, as long as the procedure is any affordable. The problem is, that the maintainance drugs you mention are all temporary. For me, minoxidil and duta did its work and lost all its efficiency. Now I’m slowly going back to baseline, after 7 years of insanely good results.

The amount of hair I still have today, is (almost) good enough for me. With a small transplant + a sideless maintainance therapy which doesn’t lose effect over time, in theory I’m settled for life!

the big question is: will this procedure also lose its effect over time, same as all the other maintainance therapies?

 

[Throwaway94]

You have to be trolling. Nobody cares about having the same amount of hair for 6 months longer. Minoxidil maintains for 2 years without touching your hormones. CB maintains for over a year without any side effects. Stemoxydine and redensyl maintain for 6 months. There are tons of things that maintain your hair for 6 months including doing absolutely nothing. Even the control group's 6 month loss is so minimal you wouldn't notice it.

There's still the fact that it's a one-and-done, no daily topicals. That adds a layer of freedom to your life. There also doesn't seem to be "catch up loss" if you stop like with minoxidil or finasteride.

Ain't the problem that you need about 50-100 grafts for a treatment and it this just lasts just 9 months instead of forever, like Replicel said in the first place?. So you would lose hair just to maintain the rest. And you have to fly to Japan, take the biopsy, fly back, wait and fly again to Tokyo for this crap.

This sh*t is done in my eyes, sad that it won't last forever.

The grafts they take are enough for a lifetime of treatments. That's what the frozen storage in Shiseido's cell processing centre is for.

 

[Throwaway94]

Except it's not "one-and-done". That's the whole point. Do you agree with Pigeon that it's a miracle if you have to fly to Japan every six months for this "one-and-done" treatment? I don't. There's also no evidence that there is "catch up loss" with this, nor is there any evidence that there is "catch up loss" with finasteride. You're going to spend more time and money just on the flight to Japan than you will in six months applying topicals, so that's not a good argument.

Where is your source that one biopsy will be used to cover two treatments per year for the rest of your life? A cell processing center having frozen storage doesn't even prove that they are storing your cells after the treatment, let alone that they will store them for you in perpetuity, free of charge. People aren't being realistic with this treatment.

I didn't suggest there would be catch up loss with this, rather the opposite if it works the way it's meant to, but it's very well documented for finasteride.

It's a one and done for six months at a time. I don't know about miracle but it's an excellent addition for people in Japan, and then the rest of us when / if it becomes available locally, which this would help pave the way for.

No one suggested that storage would be free of charge, it's likely a fee but that's irrelevant. My source is the fact that they have the storage facility and the dilution they use to reach treatment concentration, there is enough there for a lifetime and would be completely ridiculous to dispose of it and demand new grafts every time. You can call it conjecture if you like but the capability is there and it makes absolutely no sense not use it.

 

[Throwaway94]

I mean there's no evidence that there isn't catch up loss with this. This won't be available in the United States until I'm an old man, and it won't be from Shiseido or Replicel or Intercytex who came before them, so don't expect me to care. You're stating supposition as if it's fact. You can't know all of these assumptions that you are making are in fact accurate.

A smart business isn't going to waste resources(time,financial, personnel) on something that isn't going to have much long-term demand, even if it's mildly profitable. It's called opportunity cost. They can put their efforts into something else and get more profits than if they keep wasting their time with this.

I understand that my suppositions aren't fact but they make much more sense than the alternative. We do know Shiseido is still pursuing this so it's in their best interest not to waste time and resources taking new grafts when all they need to do is freeze it and thaw some twice a year.

HairClone is really just rebranded Intercytex though and they have a decent shot of commercialising in the UK in the next few years. Albeit for extortionately high prices.