Bayer Prolactin Receptor Antibody For Male And Female Pattern Hair Loss

[pegasus2]

I never said that I think HMI wouldn’t be better than the current treatments. I just raised hypothesis, one of them being that it could not end up being a lot better than the current treatments for humans.

But if we get lucky and humans end up getting the results of the same magnitude the macaques had, I would happily pay 40K too.

I think we can all agree that the drug is only viable if the human results are equivalent to the macaque results. They could sell it for less and make less money, but how do they justify charging insurance 80k a year for endo, prostate cancer, RA, or pulmonary fibrosis, or whatever other indications they have, while charging cash customers only 20k a year for hair loss?

Our resident statistician tells us that the odds of the macaque results translating to humans is less than 1%. Clearly sophisticated investors think the chance is a great deal higher than that, as those are not odds they would take. Perhaps if they had a Canadian statistician they would make better investments.

 

[pegasus2]

Hope price will drop if this gets mass produced, demand for it will be high if this really delivers.

That wont happen. It's all about ripping off insurance with insane margins. They could absolutely afford to sell it for much less on day 1. They won't because governments and private insurers will pay any price for serious diseases.

Edit: Look at Aduhelm. Highly controversial drug, people believe it doesn't work so they priced it initially at much less than the typical cost of an antibody. Insurers still balked at paying for it so Biogen cut the price in half again, and will still be very happy to sell it for that price.

 

[badnewsbearer]

I think we can all agree that the drug is only viable if the human results are equivalent to the macaque results. They could sell it for less and make less money, but how do they justify charging insurance 80k a year for endo, prostate cancer, RA, or pulmonary fibrosis, or whatever other indications they have, while charging cash customers only 20k a year for hair loss?

Our resident statistician tells us that the odds of the macaque results translating to humans is less than 1%. Clearly sophisticated investors think the chance is a great deal higher than that, as those are not odds they would take. Perhaps if they had a Canadian statistician they would make better investments.

the same way cassiopea justifies it with winlevi which is extremely expensive and such a small dose compared tk breezula. they literally stated in their presentation that this is whx they went for that first since its easy money

 

[trialAcc]

the same way cassiopea justifies it with winlevi which is extremely expensive and such a small dose compared tk breezula. they literally stated in their presentation that this is whx they went for that first since its easy money

Acne is a much larger treatment field then hairloss, and is covered by insurance most of the time. A perfect example of why hairloss treatments are so difficult to develop compared to almost anything else.

 

[badnewsbearer]

Acne is a much larger treatment field then hairloss, and is covered by insurance most of the time. A perfect example of why hairloss treatments are so difficult to develop compared to almost anything else.

im just saying hopemed will justify selling expensive hmi for cancer or the endo thing much like cassiopea bc soneone said its hard to justify

 

[RolfLeeBuckler]

I think we can all agree that the drug is only viable if the human results are equivalent to the macaque results. They could sell it for less and make less money, but how do they justify charging insurance 80k a year for endo, prostate cancer, RA, or pulmonary fibrosis, or whatever other indications they have, while charging cash customers only 20k a year for hair loss?

Our resident statistician tells us that the odds of the macaque results translating to humans is less than 1%. Clearly sophisticated investors think the chance is a great deal higher than that, as those are not odds they would take. Perhaps if they had a Canadian statistician they would make better investments.

what do you think How much % is the Chance that the human results will be in the same area like the macaque results?

 

[pegasus2]

im just saying hopemed will justify selling expensive hmi for cancer or the endo thing much like cassiopea bc soneone said its hard to justify

Cancer vs acne. I think it's not equivalent, and the dollar amount is vastly different. Is cassiopea still developing that crap for hair loss? As far as I know they never announced a price for hair loss. I would expect it to be similar to the acne price of they didn't cancel development. I certainly wouldn't expect them to charge 70k less annually for the hair version like purple are hoping HMI will do. It is one thing to say, we are charging the same amount for this drug at docent concentrations in different indications versus telling insurance we ate going to charge you 70k more for the same drug at the same indication. I can see it being less, but not what people are hoping for. There is no precedent for this though, so no one knows what will happen

 

[pegasus2]

what do you think How much % is the Chance that the human results will be in the same area like the macaque results?

Better than 50%

 

[badnewsbearer]

Cancer vs acne. I think it's not equivalent, and the dollar amount is vastly different. Is cassiopea still developing that crap for hair loss? As far as I know they never announced a price for hair loss. I would expect it to be similar to the acne price of they didn't cancel development. I certainly wouldn't expect them to charge 70k less annually for the hair version like purple are hoping HMI will do. It is one thing to say, we are charging the same amount for this drug at docent concentrations in different indications versus telling insurance we ate going to charge you 70k more for the same drug at the same indication. I can see it being less, but not what people are hoping for. There is no precedent for this though, so no one knows what will happen

they did announce a price in one power point. it was about 1 thousand per year using 1ml everyday i think, they calcukated with 100$/month per customer

i really hope they are still developing it, after all it would be easy bucks since the approval is almost secure as the same drug is already approved, they entire manufacturing process is also already set up so if they do not fail entireky as a company it would have been a maassive waste if resources to drop after 2 phase 2 trials(i think covid hurt them a lot) and cassiopea was recently aquired by cosmo pharma of whom they were getting cash from all thr time so maybe that was strategic so they could bring breezula to phase 3 after so many years, decades in fact, of development

 

[pegasus2]

I wouldn't use it even if it was approved. There are better anti-androgens out there.

 

[werefckd]

I think we can all agree that the drug is only viable if the human results are equivalent to the macaque results. They could sell it for less and make less money, but how do they justify charging insurance 80k a year for endo, prostate cancer, RA, or pulmonary fibrosis, or whatever other indications they have, while charging cash customers only 20k a year for hair loss?

Our resident statistician tells us that the odds of the macaque results translating to humans is less than 1%. Clearly sophisticated investors think the chance is a great deal higher than that, as those are not odds they would take. Perhaps if they had a Canadian statistician they would make better investments.

Perhaps the investors invested because of the other conditions and considered the hair loss angle just a bonus with a big question mark?

 

[pegasus2]

Perhaps the investors invested because of the other conditions and considered the hair loss angle just a bonus with a big question mark?

Now we're just going in circles. I'm done with this thread

 

[RolfLeeBuckler]

Now we're just going in circles. I'm done with this thread

that is why HopeMedicine should start their trial NOW or give an update. We have discussed every single part now and we deserve to know how HMI-115 works in human!

 

[Dimitri001]

That wont happen. It's all about ripping off insurance with insane margins. They could absolutely afford to sell it for much less on day 1. They won't because governments and private insurers will pay any price for serious diseases.

Edit: Look at Aduhelm. Highly controversial drug, people believe it doesn't work so they priced it initially at much less than the typical cost of an antibody. Insurers still balked at paying for it so Biogen cut the price in half again, and will still be very happy to sell it for that price.

My plan is to fake prostate cancer and get HMI through my national health service for free.

 

[RolfLeeBuckler]

My plan is to fake prostate cancer and get HMI through my national health service for free.

How would you do this?

 

[Dimitri001]

How would you do this?

It's a joke hahaha

 

[RolfLeeBuckler]

It's a joke hahaha

I am sorry. Not making jokes about hairloss since years looking for any plan to get HMI-115 asap

 

[werefckd]

If hairloss were the top priority for Hope Med they would have started the clinical trials with that condition and we know that wasn’t the case.

 

[trialAcc]

If hairloss were the top priority for Hope Med they would have started the clinical trials with that condition and we know that wasn’t the case.

Or we don't have a clue and you're just talking out of your ***?

 

[werefckd]

IMO it's pretty clear they initially acquired the rights mostly for treating hair loss as the end goal

But from a risk management perspective, they probably only have enough runway from their last funding round to make some key hires (like the new CEO) and run 1 or 2 clinical trials - the results of which need to get them to their next round of funding

Clearly the better business case can be made for running an endo phase II trial, using those results to get more funding, and then running trials for hair loss or other indications with a safety net such that the whole company doesn't fail from one bad outcome.

Biotech moves really slow, nothing unusual in the timeline of events so far. Even large pharma companies usually prioritize a single indication when pushing a drug until at least phase III, and that's with vastly more resources and experience than this company has.

(and that's all without knowing what's actually happening behind the scenes - it's still not clear if regulatory bodies will force them to do a phase I in men or let them do some kind of combined phase I/II)

The only thing clear is that treating hairloss is not on the top of their priorities list, as per the clinical trials they started with the focus on another disease — and probably because of the reasons you stated. The rest is us speculating.