Don't Be Delusional, There Won't Be Anything Better For The Next 30 Years. Deal With It.

[Bimmler]

Pipelines don't mean anything to me. I've seen phase I's, II's and III's come and go over the years, with nothing to show for. I go with how I feel.

Indeed. Pipelines are worthless.

IMO I think something like brotzu or CB will cross the finish line in the next 5 years and be similar to current options like finasteride.
Beyond that I think its not even worth guessing. I will say im more in the cynical camp long term because I think this stuff takes longer than people think it will

I see it similarly. Brotzu, CB and topical Finasteride within the next 7 years, but with an efficiency somewhat equivalent to Finasteride & co. (nothing exciting... )

Real breakthrough stuff will take some decades... If I had to guess, I would say 20 - 30 years. Let's say 25 years. That's pretty realistic & optimistic.

 

[Bimmler]

But I think it is important to note that that skepticism and discussion does not necessarily objectively inform us whether or not to be optimistic or pessimistic

You know... i hear those hyped breakthrough announcements regarding biotechnology since the 80s. Nothing has happened since. Many promises, nothing happened. Most of the work is only theoretical.

Not just because we would then gain definite objective insights into the treatments, but also because THE DATA FROM TRYING NEW THINGS WILL IN TURN TEACH US SOMETHING NEW ABOUT THE PROBLEM AT HAND, THEREBY ADVANCING THE STATE OF THE ART. This IS how things progress, because when you try something it doesn't work, well now you know what won't work and why!

I agree! That's how it works. But it is a rather slow progress, especially in biochemistry. So it might take a few decades before something "productive" comes around.

at the end of the day, nobody gives a sh*t about the mechanism - they just want their hair. But to have a really good, safe product and to claim that humanity has bested a problem that people have been discussing and lamenting for LITERALLY MILLENNIA, I think you actually have to lay out the groundwork and know what the f*** is going on. So the way we really beat the problem forever is by understanding it.

I definitely agree.
But then again... timetables.

Ok so suppose that you do not like any of the current products that are the closest to market and you think they do not work. Fine, but even if hairloss is not well funded, that doesn't mean research in this arena cannot advance quickly.

It depends on how you define "quickly"...

In general, the peripheral technologies that we know and love today - gaming consoles, iphones, homes, cars, clothes - were founded on the backbone of large advancements given to us by the industrial revolutions. Listed in order, they are as follow:
(early 1800s) First I.R.: agriculture, machines/factories/manufacturing/mining,
(early 1900s) Second I.R.:chemical industries/petroleum, automotive industry, electrical industries (analog electronics and power generation)
(mid-late 1900s) Third I.R.: Digital revolution (most electronics we interact with today), internet; (i.e. personal computers, information technology)
(soon in future) Fourth I.R.: Autonomous vehicles, biotechnology, nanotechnology, AI, 3D printing, quantum computing, the internet of things, and sort of a combination of some of the previously mentioned areas - robotics.

Indeed!

The broad advancements listed above are what enabled the thousands of products we interact with today. Advancements in the arenas listed above are probably the best gauge of how quickly our technology is advancing. And the thing is, if you look at the timeline shown above - we went from NO FACTORIES to present day in ~200 years. The point is that the advancement is exponential and exponential growth is not trivial to predict. Think of when the iPhone hit the market. That wasn't that long ago. We went from flip phones to watching youtube videos on the go. We have a black box in our pockets that can bring us answers to any questions we have, wherever we are. In absolute terms, that's a pretty fast change.

On the other hand exponential advancement has stopped in many areas.
For example in the area of semiconductors: Moore's law is no longer valid. You cannot shrink transistors indefinitely, because atoms have a certain size and quantum effects come into play.

The same goes for combustion technology. We optimized the sh*t out of most combustion technologies. The Otto motor and Diesel Engine have been over-optimized. There are certain physical barriers that you cannot cross.

Or think of rocket technology. Saturn V was one of the most efficient designs (payload to weight ratio).

Advancement is not exponential, at least not forever. It's more like an asymptote with asymptotic convergence... converging against a limit of 100% efficiency (given by physical laws).
https://i.stack.imgur.com/m0UNw.png

Not everything is possible just because you want it.

Moore's law is a gauge of how quickly computation and memory storage advanced. The most important thing to note about Moore's law is that it is exponential - that's why we are in 2017 with amazing graphics on our phones when our parents played pong on a tube T.V. to kill time.
View attachment 56982

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601441/moores-law-is-dead-now-what/
http://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2016-03-12/after-moores-law
http://techland.time.com/2012/05/01/the-collapse-of-moores-law-physicist-says-its-already-happening/

And here is the cost of sequencing a genome as a function of time. It appears to be exponential on an already logarithmic scale!
View attachment 56983

Sequencing is one thing, understanding another...

The second thing is the MOST important thing. It will cost LESS to investigate hair loss as a problem as backbone technologies improve. Hairloss will become an increasingly easier problem to solve, as it becomes more and more reasonable to rapidly and cost-effectively probe the underlying mechanism behind hairloss. Additionally, everything we try now will add to our growing knowledge of what will work and what won't so the solution to the problem will grow in a compounded manner. The eventual cure is inevitable. I'm sure most people see it this way also.

I agree. But it won't happen in 10 - 15 years.

The final point, which addresses the main issue with the thread - whether or not a technology will be out in 5 or 10 or 15 years - since things are improving exponentially

No, it's not improving exponentially, at least not in all areas.
And those areas are defining the bottleneck.

Both of those problems sit at the heart of biotechnology because solving either would have very broad and transformative effects on society and medicine. Even if people work on those problems in other systems, for example, selectively delivering drugs to cancer cells or fabrication of organs for transplantation, the advances in those fields will carryover to hair loss.

long time to go.

Functional Tooth Regeneration
by Masamitsu Oshima, Miho Ogawa, and Takashi Tsuji
View attachment 56980
They transplanted a ball of cultured cells into a bony hole made in the mouse's jaw and it assembled into a tooth and erupted as normal.

Everything works on mice.

It is guaranteed that we in this generation will see more technological advancement in our lifetime, than any human being in the past has experienced in their lifetimes.

Who guarantees that?
You?
Will you pay me 200.000$ if there won't be anything better within the next 25 years?

 

[Bimmler]

Why everyone is feeding the troll? His intention is very clear, to provoke us but we fall into his trap foolishly.

How do I provoke you?
By mentioning the obvious?

He may be a NW0 that come to tease on us, or he may be a hair transplant shill that is trying to persuade you to give up waiting and have a hair transplant, I just can't understand a genuine baldy would do so even though you are pessimistic. He has a purpose I am sure.

I am also a balding man as you are...
I would like to have a hair transplant, but my hair type is not suitable.

So my only options are Big 3, or rather Big 2, because I cannot stand the side effects of Finasteride. That's my sad life. And no cure on the horizon.

 

[Bimmler]

It's the same research. You do realize that Tsuji is really not interested in hair, they are working on hair first so they can move on to creating vital organs. Nobody is saying to put off treatment. I hate when people put words in people's mouths. Don't do that.

So you think we will have in vitro organs in about 20 years?

 

[Bimmler]

The Poll is open. Vote, Vote, Vote! Don't be afraid!

 

[Balding curse]

I vote for (go f*** your self).

 

[Bimmler]

I vote for (go f*** your self).

So basically you agree with me, but it frustrates you so much and you don't want to acknowledge it. Your way of coping is to insult me. Well, I can understand that.

 

[Dante92]

And there won't be many fullheads coming home

No, there won't be many fullheads coming home

Oh there won't be many

Maybe 5 out of 20

but there won't be many fullheads coming home

 

[Royaume]

@Bimmler.... I don't know why you are so frustrated. I mean I understand that you older guys have seen many disappointments and failures in the hair loss research world BUT stop comparing the current situation with the 80s, 90s or even the last 17 years. This is a new chapter in the hair loss world and you can do what ever you want but you cannot deny it.

They know how to stop hair loss and even regrow it to some extent at this moment.
Replicel stopped hair loss for at minimum 5 years + regrowth (average 14 % more density) with only one high dose of injection. ONE injection!!!!!! and they stated many times that their technology has improved during the last years. What would you expect to happen with multiple injections? Let's face the facts. Hair loss will no longer be an issue for the guys who are 16 right now.

I am very sure that Shiseido has excellent regrowth results. Excellent means at minimum 40 % regrowth in 12 months. We have the data in Q2 2018... This will hit the news.

Best case would be:

Q1 Brotzu lotion
Q2 Shiseidos data read out
Q3 Shiseido market launch
Q4 Follica market launch

These are the most promising companies for 2018. There is not any other promising company with a potential market launch in 2018... or did I forget a important company? PolarityTE is also very interesting with a potential market launch in H1 2018 but we need more data. Their website is very professional and their results on pigs are impressive. This is what it means if a company shows their balls. Look at the results and their pipeline.

In other words it means: We will destroy any other competitor during the next 12 months and surely they will. LoL if they really succee i want to see Cotsarelis face after spending more than a decade on wounding and then a new company comes out of nowhere with such impressive results.

Being tight lipped and showing no results in form of data read outs or before and after pictures is a shame. Look at PolarityTE. No lies, no need to be tight lipped, know why?! Because they have something and they are not afraid to show what they got.

 

[That Guy]

In other words it means: We will destroy any other competitor during the next 12 months and surely they will. LoL if they really succee i want to see Cotsarelis face after spending more than a decade on wounding and then a new company comes out of nowhere with such impressive results.

PolarityTE is not working on a hair regeneration treatment. The product you're referring to will be for treating burns.

They plan to move into hair regeneration if the treatment is successful in the burn market.

Follica is the best hope we have for new, affordable hair growth treatment anytime soon.

I, for one, welcome our new wounding overlords. As it should be able to regrow my hairline better than a transplant can and thus the nightmare ends.

and I will ride off into the sunset with all of your women — my glorious mane flowing in the wind once again.

 

[hanginginthewire]

@Bimmler.... I don't know why you are so frustrated. I mean I understand that you older guys have seen many disappointments and failures in the hair loss research world BUT stop comparing the current situation with the 80s, 90s or even the last 17 years. This is a new chapter in the hair loss world and you can do what ever you want but you cannot deny it.

They know how to stop hair loss and even regrow it to some extent at this moment.
Replicel stopped hair loss for at minimum 5 years + regrowth (average 14 % more density) with only one high dose of injection. ONE injection!!!!!! and they stated many times that their technology has improved during the last years. What would you expect to happen with multiple injections? Let's face the facts. Hair loss will no longer be an issue for the guys who are 16 right now.

I am very sure that Shiseido has excellent regrowth results. Excellent means at minimum 40 % regrowth in 12 months. We have the data in Q2 2018... This will hit the news.

Best case would be:

Q1 Brotzu lotion
Q2 Shiseidos data read out
Q3 Shiseido market launch
Q4 Follica market launch

These are the most promising companies for 2018. There is not any other promising company with a potential market launch in 2018... or did I forget a important company? PolarityTE is also very interesting with a potential market launch in H1 2018 but we need more data. Their website is very professional and their results on pigs are impressive. This is what it means if a company shows their balls. Look at the results and their pipeline.

In other words it means: We will destroy any other competitor during the next 12 months and surely they will. LoL if they really succee i want to see Cotsarelis face after spending more than a decade on wounding and then a new company comes out of nowhere with such impressive results.

Being tight lipped and showing no results in form of data read outs or before and after pictures is a shame. Look at PolarityTE. No lies, no need to be tight lipped, know why?! Because they have something and they are not afraid to show what they got.

I would have liked this post previously but my optimism is waning. Its lovely to think such thoughts but ... its just not going to happen. We know this from our own life experience. I remember when My dad was very sick we kept finding doctors and specialists and with each new one we found we'd be like "yeah! THIS one will be the one!!!" But of course none of them were and he died. Looking back it was so inevitable, I could see how deluded I had been to think otherwise. Hope springs eternal and it's a relief to indulge in it sometimes but reality is reality. Hate to be such a downer but that's how I'm feeling. Even resident optimist ThatGuy has drastically sobered up of late. Benreich Bimmler is some kind of sadist I guess but that doesn't make him wrong.

 

[Royaume]

I would have liked this post previously but my optimism is waning. Its lovely to think such thoughts but ... its just not going to happen. We know this from our own life experience. I remember when My dad was very sick we kept finding doctors and specialists and with each new one we found we'd be like "yeah! THIS one will be the one!!!" But of course none of them were and he died. Looking back it was so inevitable, I could see how deluded I had been to think otherwise. Hope springs eternal and it's a relief to indulge in it sometimes but reality is reality. Hate to be such a downer but that's how I'm feeling. Even resident optimist ThatGuy has drastically sobered up of late. Benreich Bimmler is some kind of sadist I guess but that doesn't make him wrong.

Explain what you mean. What will not happen? Shiseidos market launch in 2018? I did not understand your concerns because it is not very helpful to say: it will not happen.... you should be more specific

 

[Royaume]

PolarityTE is not working on a hair regeneration treatment. The product you're referring to will be for treating burns.

They plan to move into hair regeneration if the treatment is successful in the burn market.

Follica is the best hope we have for new, affordable hair growth treatment anytime soon.

I, for one, welcome our new wounding overlords. As it should be able to regrow my hairline better than a transplant can and thus the nightmare ends.

and I will ride off into the sunset with all of your women — my glorious mane flowing in the wind once again.

I know that their first focus is not hair regeneration but if they are able to regenerate fully functional skin, hair regeneration will be the next step as they said in ther presentation. IMO 2018 will be an exciting and groundbreaking year.

 

[That Guy]

Even resident optimist ThatGuy has drastically sobered up of late. Benreich Bimmler is some kind of sadist I guess but that doesn't make him wrong.

I don't know if I'd consider myself an "optimist", exactly.

I'm really only hopeful for cell therapies and wounding because they're actually demonstrated to be methods that grow hair and have been having success in trials.

I sh*t on topical drugs, advise people to take the big 3 and warn of the cost of hair multiplication all the time.

 

[hanginginthewire]

Explain what you mean. What will not happen? Shiseidos market launch in 2018? I did not understand your concerns because it is not very helpful to say: it will not happen.... you should be more specific

Basically concurring with the thread title. None of the anticipated treatments are going to solve the problem of hair loss anytime soon. Whatever comes will be just like finasteride and minoxidil in the sense that "ehhhhh, I guess there's some incremental improvement, like, for awhile..in certain lights...?" There's not gonna be some big blockbuster thing. I don't have any inside info I'm just saying life experience tells us this is so. But I won't keep harping on it. I just this think 2018 is going to be a very rough year for so many of us who have been like "woo-hoo, f*** yeah, 2018!!!" And I take no pleasure from that. I just know that's how its going to be.

 

[Tano1]

What about Bioprinting? Curious on what you think about it.

PolarityTE is not working on a hair regeneration treatment. The product you're referring to will be for treating burns.

They plan to move into hair regeneration if the treatment is successful in the burn market.

Follica is the best hope we have for new, affordable hair growth treatment anytime soon.

I, for one, welcome our new wounding overlords. As it should be able to regrow my hairline better than a transplant can and thus the nightmare ends.

and I will ride off into the sunset with all of your women — my glorious mane flowing in the wind once again.

Screw hair for now, I just want my scars and cobblestoning fixed so I'm rooting for these guys too! If they can treat burns by producing bioprinted skin then surely they can treat scars too.

Then I can ride off into the sunset bald and alone but happy as sh*t that I walked out of the one way tunnel Lol

 

[Michel F. II]

Big 3 will still be THE WAY TO GO in the year 2040. Deal with it. Don't be delusional, relax!

Phenelzine (Nardil) and Tranylcypromine (Parnate) are still the most effective antidepressants & anxiolytics and they have been around for 60 years. There hasn't been anything better for the last 60 years, although pharma is putting billions of dollars in the development of newer & better antidepressants.

Hello, there.
I have so many questions to ask you.
· You compare antidepressants to anti hair loss medication.
A) Mental disorders share very few similarities with hair loss. Their physiopathological mechanisms are vastly different.
B) The drugs you point out are very efficient, even though they were produced sixty years ago. Pharmas haven't merely tried to improve them throughout the decades. They have aimed mainly at manufacturing several drugs for different mental disorder categories.
On the contrary, finasteride and minoxidil are relatively efficient, but not so efficient as the antidepressants you mention. And the side effects, especially for finasteride, are very discouraging.
Do you still think the comparison is valid?
What about HIV/AIDS?
What about monoclonal antibody therapy?
· You mentioned the 80's. Are you over fifty?
Sincerely, had so many different hair-loss-related deeds been around in the 80's, the 90's and the early 00's?
· Everything you say is reasonable. But how come you are so confident that nothing will be released in the near future? Predicting the future can never be reasonable, can it?

@Pithikas, ρε, τρελέ. Πού είσαι;
Άσ'τον Χέλοου χρήστη, πιο ηλίθιο άτομο πεθαίνεις.

 

[JimmyB]

I dunno if it'll be 30 years, but other than Follica, I think our best hope for a near-term treatment is another serendipitous discovery like finasteride. Think about it - arguably the most effective hair loss treatment didn't even come from hair loss research. The question is, will lightning strike twice?

 

[That Guy]

I dunno if it'll be 30 years, but other than Follica, I think our best hope for a near-term treatment is another serendipitous discovery like finasteride. Think about it - arguably the most effective hair loss treatment didn't even come from hair loss research. The question is, will lightning strike twice?

It did, though.

 

[Kev123]

PolarityTE is not working on a hair regeneration treatment. The product you're referring to will be for treating burns.

They plan to move into hair regeneration if the treatment is successful in the burn market.

Follica is the best hope we have for new, affordable hair growth treatment anytime soon.

I, for one, welcome our new wounding overlords. As it should be able to regrow my hairline better than a transplant can and thus the nightmare ends.

and I will ride off into the sunset with all of your women — my glorious mane flowing in the wind once again.

Are you talking about Follica?

 

[Kev123]

Basically concurring with the thread title. None of the anticipated treatments are going to solve the problem of hair loss anytime soon. Whatever comes will be just like finasteride and minoxidil in the sense that "ehhhhh, I guess there's some incremental improvement, like, for awhile..in certain lights...?" There's not gonna be some big blockbuster thing. I don't have any inside info I'm just saying life experience tells us this is so. But I won't keep harping on it. I just this think 2018 is going to be a very rough year for so many of us who have been like "woo-hoo, f*** yeah, 2018!!!" And I take no pleasure from that. I just know that's how its going to be.

I liked about 95% of your post, but I still liked it. Your last sentence "I just know that's how it's going to be", I don't think is correct. While I agree that 2018 will *probably* be a big let down, we can't *know* for sure. We can strongly believe, but we don't actually know what the future holds. Maybe 2018 will not be the big hair treatment party some are unwisely making it out to be (unwisely because IF bad news comes, they're going to be hit the hardest, so they should keep their expectations a tad low), but we don't know for sure.