Only 33% of therapies move from Phase II to III, and 80% of those that go to Phase III come to market.
Those of you who keep repeating, "needling and minoxidil" have absolutely no understanding of the protocol. It's not about the needling and the minoxidil, it's when and how you needle, and when you apply the minoxidil. Perfecting the insult and window to stimulate and maximize the regenerative response is what they've been studying for 20 years. If you think there isn't a difference between what Follica has been doing and what you've been doing with a dermapen and Rogaine, you simply don't comprehend the science behind this.
Follica is going to change the game. I was hoping they'd go commercial by late 2021/early 2022, but I'm sure C-19 wrecked their schedule. Still, given that they aren't testing a novel compound, and their previous trial protocols were three-month timelines, it's possible this could come out in early 2022 (they don't have to - and it's quite common not to - wait for approval to prime their marketing campaign and derm recruitment).