Global Economy - Time to sound the alarm

CCS

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Old Baldy said:
Day one of the economy saving stimulus package - Dow plunges 297 points??!!

when the stimulus does not work, obama will just blame it on the republicans for not letting him make it big enough. They did stimulous stuff in the great depression and it did not work. World war two employed people, but got us in deep debt. We paid it off fast though. How? I think because women had entered the work force. Twice the laber = more tax revenue to pay off debt. We need to work our way out of this, not waste time on money swapping.
 

CCS

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The Gardener said:
We were relying on ever-increasing property values to be the collateral for this. This collateral became a bubble, and now its popped, and we're back to square one... back to spending more wealth than we consume.
The housing bubble would not have even caused a government deficit had the government not increased spending in response to increased housing values. If the states would have just stayed at the same revenue and spending as before, they would be in the black. The only people who needed to suffer were those who took loans too big, and those who approved them. I heard Barny Frank threatened to sue any bank that did not approve poor people for housing loans.

We need to start producing more wealth than we consume. This could be achieved in a number of ways... most importantly is to REDUCE our addiction to foreign oil, which is a prime driver of our trade deficit. Less oil bought means that more money is accumulated here, and less money is consumed at the gas pump.
Agreed, but unfortunately the Democrat designed spendulous bill has very little money for cellulostic ethanol research, and is mostly just construction of "green" golf courses and global warming research buildings, and lots of wellfare. Now Obama wants to pay delinquent people money if they make their payments on time, and will get the money from responsible people who always made their payments.
 

CCS

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The Gardener said:
As much as I am a skeptic about the stimulus package... and I am, I thought this stimulus was supposed to be for infrastructure investment to foster weaning us off foreign oil, and it is sounding more like it has a bunch of Reid/Pelosi pork in it... yesterday's selloff was more driven by international issues. Namely, the banking system in Europe is on the edge of an abyss, in SERIOUS crisis, and a large Korean bank declined to pay on a callable bond, which is VERY alarming. You can't just look at the US indexes in isolation, there has been a VISCIOUS selloff going on all around the globe.

I hate "stimulus" packages. There is NO case in modern economics where a "stimulus package" ever did ANY good. What we should be spending money on is an "INVESTMENT" package... where the government takes advantage of low commodity prices and low labor unit prices to build infrastructure that will yield a return in the out years. Good examples would be alternative energy, rail networks, etc. It drives me crazy when I hear pundits laugh off the importance of a good rail network. They could not be MORE wrong... rail transportation is the most energy efficient way of transporting bulk goods. When oil prices rise again, and we all know they will, an investment here would yield IMMENSE returns in the decades ahead IMHO.

Think of the Hoover Dam, or the Tennessee Valley Authority under FDR... LOTS of very valuable infrastructure built on the cheap, because in a depression, labor and materials costs are really low. And, as a result, infrastructure was built that is still reaping returns to this day... and in the process, it kept a lot of unemployed people busy doing work and earning a basic wage. THAT's what I call a GOOD and timely government INVESTMENT. And that is what I believe Obama wanted to do... he needs to remind Reid/Pelosi that HE is the President, and not them.
I hate to burst your bubble, since I know you still think he is the messiah, but Obama was going around the US stirring up as much fear as possible, telling investers that now is not the time to be making proffits, and telling americans that we need that stimulous bill. He never once tried to stop it or change it. Never objected to any part of it. I think is "original plans" were just stated to get elected, and you will see what he really wants. A lot of money in the stimulous bill went to ACORN, BTW.
 

CCS

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railways would be great. We just need to put bridges over them, both cars and animals. It would be really nice if we could get a lot of those semis off the road, and have more fenced off areas where the train can get up to 200mph.
 

CCS

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The Gardener said:
But, then again, when it comes to economics I, generally, lean towards the Ron Paul philosophy.

Did you vote for Ron Paul? I donate money every month to the libertarians. Charges my credit card automatically. $25.
 

CCS

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Cassin said:
ok good.

I mean what the hell is wrong with tighter loans and more responsibility.

I have taken care of my credit and sacrificed to protect it.

fine by me. It just means some companies that used to be going into debt to look good, are now out of business, since banks only give money to the most trust worthy ones. Many people are out of work, and as they leave, it means fewer customers for other people. But it is all part of a big swing. New good companies should come fill the gap and hire people, maybe at lower wages if they are lazy. The problem is the government might try to nationalize everything at tax payer expense.
 

The Gardener

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Why can't we just let the people who made/took the bad loans responsible, and stop bailing everyone out? I'm so upset about all these bailouts.
I agree. The reason why that won't happen is because if we made the folks to lent the money just EAT their losses, some of the most powerful and wealthy people in this country would suffer tremendous losses. And, our government won't let their paymasters down!

Like I've said MANY times... feudalism never ended. It's just taken a different form.

I ALSO agree that the New Deal did not help end the Great Depression. But, some aspects of the New Deal were good investments. In a depression, commodities are cheap and labor is cheap, so its a great time for the government to build infrastructure that will reap returns in later years. Plus, these projects help keep a lot of unemployed people busy, which helps prevent a total breakdown of the social fabric. Sooo... although I agree that the New Deal did not help end the Great Depression, and in fact it probably extended it a bit, I consider it not a "stimulus", but rather an "investment", that was made at a time to help take some of the edge off of a very traumatic economic event. And, this "investment" continues to pay dividends in, as an example, electricity generation from the Hoover Dam, or from the Tennessee Valley Authority, which also helped with flood control along our nation's largest rivers. These were very sophisticated infrastructure investments that were made during a period of time when the government got a discount price on them.

CCS, first off, there's really no partisan issue here with the current crisis. This crisis transcends political parties, both have dirty hands and both parties are dutifully serving the interests of their paymasters. Correct me if I am wrong, but you voted for McCain... he's a BIG follower of the Phil Gramm school of economics, one of the ringmasters of the junta who created this crisis in the first place. Do a google on the Gramm Leach Bliley Act... the "Gramm" in the title of this now INFAMOUS piece of legislation being taken from Phil Gramm, its primary author.

I hate to burst your bubble, but you really should look deeper than Fox News soundbytes to get an understanding of this crisis because your posts are off target. The whole "Congress forced the banks to make bad mortgage loans" isn't the cause of this. That was just the first flashpoint, but the underlying cause is reckless bank deregulation that began under Reagan, and continued willingly under Bush sr, the Clinton/Rubin cabal, and Bush jr. ALL of them have dirty hands... Republicans AND Democrats... all allowed our financial system to be turned into a massive cesspool of a casino.

The S&L crisis, the Long Term Capital Management crisis, the Asian currency crisis, the Tech Bubble... bigger and bigger speculative bubbles.... all of these should have been HUGE warning signs that something was rotten in Denmark. That bad policy had been put in place. But the signs were ignored, because people in priviledged places were making BIG money.
 

Old Baldy

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Yes Gardener, but McCain was a Democrat wasn't he? :)

Seriously though, I can totally understand CCS's frustration with these bailouts. It appears we are "forgiving" the behavior of fat cats and greedy consumers. None of us like that but I guess we have a monumental problem now and something will be done regardless of what CCS and I believe should be done.

And yes, I've said for decades that feudalism has never really ended.

Ali: We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this subject. I wholeheartedly believe that greedy consumers played a significant role in this debacle and did so knowningly for the most part.
 

ali777

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CCS said:
ali777 said:
I keep saying, uncontrolled capitalism is not good for the humanity. I do support rewarding hard work, but not at the cost of other people's welfare.

On paper there are many control mechanisms protecting the system, but those greedy bastards know how to exploit the systems through lobbing and stuff :puke:

lobbying is a government thing. Why do you blame capitalism? It is the government cosigning on stuff with taxpayer money that caused this. The problem is fraud. And when we all must pay taxes to people who create fraud, the problems get much bigger.

You are saying the same thing as me but in a different way. I am not anti-capitalism. But some of us think of capitalism as freedom to do whatever we want. It doesn't work like that. Capitalism was never meant to be freedom to do whatever we want.

Capitalism is about rewarding hard work within certain limits. We forgot our limits and our fundamentals.
 

Cassin

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This is a good thing in the long run....too many people were spending credit as if it was actual income and it was madness. I'm convinced most people haven't a clue how credit lines work and mortgage and car salesman have convinced people that you look at the monthly payments and not the cost of a loan. When you buy a car you need look at the APR plus the drive out cost. Car + ttl+ fees + total cost of APR = cost of car and yet dealerships have convinced some people that its ok to drive a car you can't afford at 15% APR for 72 months if you can get the payment down to $325 range. Are you kidding me? How does that benefit anyone? The moment you drive off that lot and with a bad APR you are so far upside on your car note you can forget about getting a good deal on your next car. And when you do want a new car? Well you just roll your upside down note into your next car loan. So guess what...your nice shiny 2009 car has a total lien of about 37k when the actual car you're driving is no more than 28k.

People have to stop thinking that's acceptable. I know the above example seems unreal but I know someone in that situation right now.

I was taught growing up that credit is a bad thing and to avoid it, glad that happened.
 

The Gardener

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Old Baldy said:
Yes Gardener, but McCain was a Democrat wasn't he? :)

Seriously though, I can totally understand CCS's frustration with these bailouts. It appears we are "forgiving" the behavior of fat cats and greedy consumers. None of us like that but I guess we have a monumental problem now and something will be done regardless of what CCS and I believe should be done.

And yes, I've said for decades that feudalism has never really ended.

Ali: We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this subject. I wholeheartedly believe that greedy consumers played a significant role in this debacle and did so knowningly for the most part.
I don't disagree with anything you said, Old Baldy. And I am frustrated with the bailouts as well.... they are using our money to try to sustain the unsustainable.

I don't think this crisis is going to end until these bad debts are CLEARED from the system.... which would entail some big time cramdowns... and some big time bankruptcies.
 

Old Baldy

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Cassin said:
This is a good thing in the long run....too many people were spending credit as if it was actual income and it was madness. I'm convinced most people haven't a clue how credit lines work and mortgage and car salesman have convinced people that you look at the monthly payments and not the cost of a loan. When you buy a car you need look at the APR plus the drive out cost. Car + ttl+ fees + total cost of APR = cost of car and yet dealerships have convinced some people that its ok to drive a car you can't afford at 15% APR for 72 months if you can get the payment down to $325 range. Are you kidding me? How does that benefit anyone? The moment you drive off that lot and with a bad APR you are so far upside on your car note you can forget about getting a good deal on your next car. And when you do want a new car? Well you just roll your upside down note into your next car loan. So guess what...your nice shiny 2009 car has a total lien of about 37k when the actual car you're driving is no more than 28k.

People have to stop thinking that's acceptable. I know the above example seems unreal but I know someone in that situation right now.

I was taught growing up that credit is a bad thing and to avoid it, glad that happened.

Well what you do, unless you are a greedy consumer, is keep that car in working order for 72 months, learn from your stupid mistake and when you buy a car AFTER the 6 year note has been satisfied you do so more wisely.

(If you're honest, you suck it up and pay off the note and move on. If that means you have to keep the vehicle longer than you desire, tough cookies. Grow up and be honest. Don't be a drag on everyone else.)

You don't keep flipping it and eventually owe so much money on a vehicle/house, that you can't afford the payment and let honest people foot the bill.

Then again, he/she could just drive off a cliff and we'd be done with that selfish idiot forever. Now I'd be willing to foot the bill if they did that!! :woot:

Seriously though Cassin, don't you see that that person purchased a car they couldn't afford and did so by letting the seller knowlingly "play around" with the payment plan. That person "had to have that vehicle". Oh no, they couldn't be seen driving around in a more economical vehicle. G** da** greedy consumers.
 

Cassin

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Old Baldy said:
Well what you do, unless you are a greedy consumer, is keep that car in working order for 72 months, learn from your stupid mistake and when you buy a car AFTER the 6 year note has been satisfied you do so more wisely.

I think I did a poor job of initially explaining myself.

But the point is you would have to be a greedy consumer to get into such a bad deal in the first place. If all you can afford is x amount per month and it takes 72 months to get there for a reasonable car that's one thing.

I am mainly talking about the people who can't afford a suped up nice new car and take an awful loan out to get it.

If you have limited income buy a certified used 2 or 3 year old car with low miles. Let someone else take the depreciation hit.

I know this thread is about the global economy but the problem with credit goes from the 18 year old getting his/her first credit card to board of governors at fortune 500 company's.
 

mulder

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Soros and Volker: Worse Than The Great Depression?

http://www.reuters.com/article/business ... 23&sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.

Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.

He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system.

"We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."

His comments echoed those made earlier at the same conference by Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman who is now a top adviser to President Barack Obama.

Volcker said industrial production around the world was declining even more rapidly than in the United States, which is itself under severe strain.

"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker said.
 

CCS

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Anyone working for Obama is going to say that it is getting worse. With a lot of big money people hoping to get bailout money by the billions, I'm sure they will say anything. Or if they own bad stock by the billions, I'm sure they are hoping the government will buy it. I'm telling you, the bailout proponents are using the media to scare us all. They don't care if it wrecks the economy as long as they get their money. I guarantee that Soros guy will not starve, and can ride out the depression on his yaught after making it worth with his fear tactics.

The great depression was caused by tarrifs. Spain's economy failed because the government found lots more gold and caused huge inflation when they spent it. Name one depression that was not caused by government.
 

The Gardener

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Dead wrong. The Great Depression of the 1930s was caused by excessive debt and leveraging that was financing the prosperity of the "Roaring 20s".

I'll agree that tariffs made things MUCH worse, and extended the length of the depression, but it certainly did not CAUSE the great depression. How could it? The tariffs were part of the Smoot Hawley Act, which was passed in 1930.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot-Hawley_Tariff_Act

Sooooo.... how could legislation passed in 1930 have caused a depression that began in 1929?
 

Eureka

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Should just legalize pot.. And tax it.

Everyone already smokes it anyway, and there's millions being wasted.. perhaps billions? On a useless drug war that will never be won.

Unless of course the human race becomes extinct. Barring that people will always do drugs, with or without drug dealers.

Also, It's a nice sentiment to tell people to wait. But is anyone that's suggesting this someone who has lost their job? Or their home etc.
Not that I put much faith in the Keynesian thing either though.
 
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