How close are we to FUE using hair cloning?

[MeDK]

Interesting people still discuss the same, but they forget something very important, then supply chain.

Before Tsuji stopped, it took them 7 years to establish a supply chain, and if they need to build a new supply chain (which is required for clinical trails) its not going to happen anytime soon.

Same with other companies that haven't started on clinical trails, they will meet a solid wall during this crisis, since multiple supply chains have been bottlenecked, and those supply chains are established, think about starting a new one during this crisis.

Even Replicel met their challenges with their supply chain when one of the supplier stopped, then they have to find a new one, and come up with a new formula, that also took them years to get into where they are now.

And here people talk about two companies that have zero known supply chain for human trails, and think its happening within a few years.

 

[coolio]

I'm not talking about what you believed in the past. I'm saying you don't understand now that Aderans was never supposed to cure baldness. That kind of talk was for investors, but the technology was always for maintenance. Actually they are still going at Hairclone, it's the same people and same tech. The company went bankrupt but the tech didn't fail. It's also the reason no one talks about Hairclone as a cure.

You sound like you've been reading too many of their later press releases.

Aderans started off intending to functionally cure baldness. By the final Ji Gami trial they were calling it successful if they got any measurable improvement. That's quite a difference.

Either the researchers were scamming the investors the whole time (and there were never any consequences) or they failed. Pick one.

Interesting people still discuss the same, but they forget something very important, then supply chain.

Before Tsuji stopped, it took them 7 years to establish a supply chain, and if they need to build a new supply chain (which is required for clinical trails) its not going to happen anytime soon.

Same with other companies that haven't started on clinical trails, they will meet a solid wall during this crisis, since multiple supply chains have been bottlenecked, and those supply chains are established, think about starting a new one during this crisis.

Even Replicel met their challenges with their supply chain when one of the supplier stopped, then they have to find a new one, and come up with a new formula, that also took them years to get into where they are now.

And here people talk about two companies that have zero known supply chain for human trails, and think its happening within a few years.

Yes, that's sort of issue that gets missed when all the focus is on the science. Medical research spectators (all of us) have a tendency make commercialization estimates as if the actual trials are the main time factor. In real life it never plays out so cleanly. Just the sheer scale and diversity of the tasks involved in the rollout is enough to cause all sorts of delays.

As for the current situation, IMO this Covid shutdown introduces too many variables to try to guess. I think the state of hair research is more encouraging than ever but I don't know when it will be on our heads.

 

[pegasus2]

You sound like you've been reading too many of their later press releases.

Aderans started off intending to functionally cure baldness. By the final Ji Gami trial they were calling it successful if they got any measurable improvement. That's quite a difference.

Either the researchers were scamming the investors the whole time (and there were never any consequences) or they failed. Pick one.




Yes, that's sort of issue that gets missed when all the focus is on the science. Medical research spectators (all of us) have a tendency make commercialization estimates as if the actual trials are the main time factor. In real life it never plays out so cleanly. Just the sheer scale and diversity of the tasks involved in the rollout is enough to cause all sorts of delays.

As for the current situation, IMO this Covid shutdown introduces too many variables to try to guess. I think the state of hair research is more encouraging than ever but I don't know when it will be on our heads.

I don't trust what companies say, I go by the science. Samumed said they were going to cure baldness too. Companies lie to get money. The retards at the time believed Aderans was a cure, I don't think any of the smart posters did.

Tsuji has suffered business delays, but Stemson is moving forward and making consistent progress on the business end. It's only a matter of time now. It could be 3 years or 10 years, but it's coming.

 

[Diffused_confidence]

I don't trust what companies say, I go by the science. Samumed said they were going to cure baldness too. Companies lie to get money. The retards at the time believed Aderans was a cure, I don't think any of the smart posters did.

Tsuji has suffered business delays, but Stemson is moving forward and making consistent progress on the business end. It's only a matter of time now. It could be 3 years or 10 years, but it's coming.

Stemson I think has a the best shot but still only 20% chance of success and 20 years away.

 

[Pls_NW-1]

Stemson I think has a the best shot but still only 20% chance of success and 20 years away.

20% chance of success and 20 years? Their patent runs out way before than 20 years and no funding will be given if they don't do progress asap. Smfh

Complete success was shown in mice, tho not translateable to humans, but pig studies will show if it'll work or not.

Wonder where you get your info. Mind sharing? Lol

 

[Diffused_confidence]

20% chance of success and 20 years? Their patent runs out way before than 20 years and no funding will be given if they don't do progress asap. Smfh

Complete success was shown in mice, tho not translateable to humans, but pig studies will show if it'll work or not.

Wonder where you get your info. Mind sharing? Lol

I am just guessing. I have very little knowledge on where things stand. But the technology being available in 20 years, whether it is cosmetically good or not, is totally possible.

 

[Anatman]

I don't think hair cloning will be around in the next 5-10 years. And even if it does, it will be almost priceless. However, we will only know when new insights and new results are published. Who knows? Maybe the breakthrough will come tomorrow?
Maybe in 2-3 weeks ..... months. Nobody here can give a real time. We'll have to wait and see. And even if it seems close enough to touch, it can still fail. I would not set my hopes too high and see what is possible now.

 

[Pls_NW-1]

I am just guessing. I have very little knowledge on where things stand. But the technology being available in 20 years, whether it is cosmetically good or not, is totally possible.

Yes, correct. Affordability is a different thing than avialability.

 

[trialAcc]

I don't think hair cloning will be around in the next 5-10 years. And even if it does, it will be almost priceless. However, we will only know when new insights and new results are published. Who knows? Maybe the breakthrough will come tomorrow?
Maybe in 2-3 weeks ..... months. Nobody here can give a real time. We'll have to wait and see. And even if it seems close enough to touch, it can still fail. I would not set my hopes too high and see what is possible now.

I think people vastly underestimate how quickly medical and technological advancement is about to pick up in the next 1-2 decades. Medical AI & machine learning is pretty much a game changer for medical research, gene decoding and compound screening. They're going to have to overhaul the drug trialing and discovery process eventually to be able to keep up with it.

 

[MeDK]

I don't think hair cloning will be around in the next 5-10 years. And even if it does, it will be almost priceless. However, we will only know when new insights and new results are published. Who knows? Maybe the breakthrough will come tomorrow?
Maybe in 2-3 weeks ..... months. Nobody here can give a real time. We'll have to wait and see. And even if it seems close enough to touch, it can still fail. I would not set my hopes too high and see what is possible now.

Even with a breakthrough next week, there is still the thing that isn't always thought about. that is scalability. Is it possible to scale the method up and industrialize it.

That is why crisper research isn't too good, it can't be scaled up. The method is just not good enough.

the more complex and fragile the current methods are, the more expensive its going to be and more exclusive because of the lack of scalability.

So if something needs to be grown, and then implanted back again as a graft, then we have the problem with scalability, how many hair transplant surgeons do we have at hand, how is QC going to be with getting 1.000 - 10.000 grafts (remember graft start dying when taken out of their medium and scalp).

So the hope for something like this going to be cheaper in the near future, i have my doubts, even if it was going to be commercialized tomorrow. The time to scale this method up is going to take decades. Because of the highly educated medical staff (a surgeon its +7 years in the making just to leave university) and then specialized education after university and then all the machinery on top of that.

The bottleneck is going to be insane if people hope for cloning that ends with hair follicle grafts.

 

[Anatman]

I think people vastly underestimate how quickly medical and technological advancement is about to pick up in the next 1-2 decades. Medical AI & machine learning is pretty much a game changer for medical research, gene decoding and compound screening. They're going to have to overhaul the drug trialing and discovery process eventually to be able to keep up with it.

Of course I don't contradict you. however, it won't go as fast as we hope it will. Even if this is the case, clinical trials and FDA approvals remain, which continue to cost a lot of time. At the same time, we can also see that the financial situation within research is not rosy.

 

[trialAcc]

Even with a breakthrough next week, there is still the thing that isn't always thought about. that is scalability. Is it possible to scale the method up and industrialize it.

That is why crisper research isn't too good, it can't be scaled up. The method is just not good enough.

the more complex and fragile the current methods are, the more expensive its going to be and more exclusive because of the lack of scalability.

So if something needs to be grown, and then implanted back again as a graft, then we have the problem with scalability, how many hair transplant surgeons do we have at hand, how is QC going to be with getting 1.000 - 10.000 grafts (remember graft start dying when taken out of their medium and scalp).

So the hope for something like this going to be cheaper in the near future, i have my doubts, even if it was going to be commercialized tomorrow. The time to scale this method up is going to take decades. Because of the highly educated medical staff (a surgeon its +7 years in the making just to leave university) and then specialized education after university and then all the machinery on top of that.

The bottleneck is going to be insane if people hope for cloning that ends with hair follicle grafts.

What exactly do you think these companies are doing with their time? They have patents that exist for 20 years but you think it will take decades to scale? Stemson is going to be using existing channels (hair transplant surgeons) to get this to scale, and I'm sure it will be offered in most countries they have patents in within 1-2 years after launch. They are just the company with the science/technology, they won't be doing the procedure themselves.

I agree with you on Tsuji though, they have no known business development plans and I doubt whatever they end up commercializing will make it very far out of Japan before others catch up.

 

[MeDK]

What exactly do you think these companies are doing with their time? They have patents that exist for 20 years but you think it will take decades to scale? Stemson is going to be using existing channels (hair transplant surgeons) to get this to scale, and I'm sure it will be offered in most countries they have patents in within 1-2 years after launch. They are just the company with the science/technology, they won't be doing the procedure themselves.

I agree with you on Tsuji though, they have no known business development plans and I doubt whatever they end up commercializing will make it very far out of Japan before others catch up.

Many companies have patents, but that doesn't mean the realize the full potential.

What we know when a new product is introduced to a market where specialists are needed, it also requires training and education.

So how much have they implement yet, you know all those hair transplant surgeons, is it a solid zero? So in that regard the patent means nothing if no one can work with it.

So i stand by with the whole supply chain down to the consumer, its many years away, if the different companies stood with a finished product tomorrow, i still see it takes years to implement to the commercial market.

 

[trialAcc]

Many companies have patents, but that doesn't mean the realize the full potential.

What we know when a new product is introduced to a market where specialists are needed, it also requires training and education.

So how much have they implement yet, you know all those hair transplant surgeons, is it a solid zero? So in that regard the patent means nothing if no one can work with it.

So i stand by with the whole supply chain down to the consumer, its many years away, if the different companies stood with a finished product tomorrow, i still see it takes years to implement to the commercial market.

You just don't get it, they happen at the same time.

 

[DJC]

After watching replicel fail so horribly, I have my doubts these companies will be able to succeed. You have 3 ways this can fail.

1. Cancerous tumors as a side effect. No way the fda approves it.
2. Body rejects the cloned hair and it just falls out.
3. The cloned hair follicles don't grow for multiple cycles.

Lots of research has to be done. Even if phase 1 comes out with excellent results, a lot of tests have to be done before it becomes available to the public (those who can afford it). Stemson is doing trials on pigs now, not humans, the company could run out of money before they hit human trials. I'd give it 10 years assuming successful phase 1. If not successful, I'd say 20 years at least.

Has tumors been an issue in the past?

 

[Diffused_confidence]

Has tumors been an issue in the past?

It's just a risk that cloned cells can mutate into cancerous cells.

 

[DJC]

Yes, correct. Affordability is a different thing than avialability.

I assume it will be cheaper than FUE since you do not have to harvest hairs from the donor area.

 

[trialAcc]

Has tumors been an issue in the past?

It's just a risk that cloned cells can mutate into cancerous cells.

Nah it's not, the cell cultures happen outside of the body and the risk isn't there according to Stemson.

 

[pegasus2]

Nah it's not, the cell cultures happen outside of the body and the risk isn't there according to Stemson.

In fairness what else is Stemson going to say? Are they going to say "it might cause cancer, invest in us so that we can find out"?

That said, I don't think there is much risk either. This could happen in culture and they can remove any bad cells. As long as none sneak through and get implanted then there should be no risk.

 

[trialAcc]

In fairness what else is Stemson going to say? Are they going to say "it might cause cancer, invest in us so that we can find out"?

That said, I don't think there is much risk either. This could happen in culture and they can remove any bad cells. As long as none sneak through and get implanted then there should be no risk.

Not openly no, but they might suggest that a safety profile will have to be established through trials. Alexey point blank just said no it's not an issue, where as he pointed out a lot of other potential issues and roadblocks in the same interview.