Replicel Update - Oct. 22, 2014 Presentation

[Rocklee]

I would gladly pay 3-4x times that amount for a cure without thinking twice

Replicel sounds soooooo good...
hope it is as good as we hope!

we will see.

 

[dps]

tendonosis seems more complicated than treating baldness, but I am sure they will charge 3 to 5 times more... just as fpbalding wants...
why? cause they ****ing can.

5k$ I can take a loan and pay it back in no time thanks to the regained confidence?
but 20k ?? I better start saving nickel by nickel.

 

[benjt]

I know that some of the people don't like to hear me repeating this, but the numbers from the analyst's report were more like 15,000 to 30,000 USD per treatment. This could be based on a cost estimate without Shiseido's cell replication facilities (because the estimates were from before the Shiseido deal), or it could just be because somebody analyzed that it is a good price range that people are going to be willing to pay without a problem. But the one thing that the report stated as a fixed price was "15,000 USD cost for cell multiplication per patient". Then, however, the doctors performing the treatment still need to earn something, so the total price will definitely not be below the cell multiplication price.

Also, take into mind basic market laws: During the first few years of availability, only a few thousand can be treated globally. Rare goods can be sold for higher prices, and - basic market economy - a good can be sold for the highest price that buyers are willing to pay. And you will definitely find more than only a few thousand people that would gladly pay 30,000 USD for this treatment. So treatment similarity to the tendinosis treatment doesn't necessarily mean price similarity due to market principles.

 

[benjt]

Of course hair clinics and hair transplant doctors will want to invest in this. The problem is that they can't just invest; they need training and licensing directly from RepliCel (or Shiseido). The estimate with only a few thousand people treated per year was on the grounds that not too many doctors or clinics can be trained and licensed too soon. However, I believe that Shiseido is allowed to perform training and licensing themselves, so that hopefully speeds things up.

 

[Fbalding84]

What I don't understand is why everyone keeps thinking because sheisodo invested money it- it means it works 100%.

They are a large firm that can play with money. and even if the results are not good they can't live without hurting them self for cash.

Sheisodo is doing their own trials to make sure it's really working. No one knows how good it is. If they were 100% convinced they would say it flat out and not talk in circle.

 

[hellouser]

What I don't understand is why everyone keeps thinking because sheisodo invested money it- it means it works 100%.

They are a large firm that can play with money. and even if the results are not good they can't live without hurting them self for cash.

Sheisodo is doing their own trials to make sure it's really working. No one knows how good it is. If they were 100% convinced they would say it flat out and not talk in circle.

Given Replicel's results at 6 months, it does work to an extent. We don't know if things improved past 6 months.

 

[Fbalding84]

Given Replicel's results at 6 months, it does work to an extent. We don't know if things improved past 6 months.

I hope it works and the results speak for themself. We shouldn't base our opinion only because "sheisodo is 4th largest firm boa bla" bs to think it worlks. We should look at the results and other more logical indicators.
That's all I'm saying.

- - - Updated - - -

I for one am sick and tried of going/being bald.

It f$&ks up my whole day and my self esteem!!!!!! F this BS

 

[macbeth81]

Given Replicel's results at 6 months, it does work to an extent. We don't know if things improved past 6 months.

I am not sure they know either. Their interim results mentioned a follow-up in 24 months post injection for safety and efficacy. I asked if hair counts were reassessed and below was their response.

"Based on the promising 6-month efficacy data, patient follow-up has been restricted to safety data collection for five years post injection. The company is now focusing on moving forward with its phase 2 dosing study in addition to our other trials in other indications."


Didn't Aderans fail because the replicated DP cells lost their ability to grow hair. Do you think the replicated DSC cells will fail to regulate DP cells, and thus this method will not meet reasonable efficacy? Does 2D/3D culturing matter with DSC cells?

 

[hellouser]

I for one am sick and tried of going/being bald.

It f$&ks up my whole day and my self esteem!!!!!! F this BS

Thank society for feeling this way; they have no problem telling you to 'man up' and 'own it' but they'll also have the balls to mock the sh*t out of you for being a balding guy. It's just society's way of keeping you down to feel empowered. Nobody that has a full head of hair really cares for us to be on the same playing field because it'd compromise someone else's precious status.

Fvck society.

 

[macbeth81]

Not sure it has been discussed but Sheisodo has past experience trying to find a hair loss cure. I noticed they have three patents related to this subject; one which was issued last year. Hopefully they can bring expertise as well as money to Replicel.

http://patents.justia.com/patent/20130212724

http://patents.justia.com/patent/20080089873

http://patents.justia.com/patent/20070122386

Edit:

https://www.shiseidogroup.com/ir/pdf/ir20130530_701.pdf

Shiseido will combine RepliCel’s hair regenerative medicine technology and Shiseido’s technology
and aim to commercialize safe and effective hair regenerative medicine that integrates beauty and
medicine to help those concerned about pattern baldness and thinning hair in the next 5 years by also
cooperating with specialists in the future.

 

[Fbalding84]

Thank society for feeling this way; they have no problem telling you to 'man up' and 'own it' but they'll also have the balls to mock the sh*t out of you for being a balding guy. It's just society's way of keeping you down to feel empowered. Nobody that has a full head of hair really cares for us to be on the same playing field because it'd compromise someone else's precious status.

Fvck society.

For me the worst part is that I was known for my good hair. Everyone girl and guy I would meet, would compliment me for my hair. That was my thing. I have lost my trademark.... It fcking s$cks not to be who u were. I can't own and man up be someone I'm not....

And all the pharma wants to do is find a treatment that will have residual income for them. Never ever expect a full cure, you can't milk a fully cured person for money. You need a desperate man that you milk like an addict. Only three scenario that give us a full cure is by
1. "accidental" discovery
2. off label/ side effect for other approved drugs
3. A dedicated scientist that doesn't give a sh!t about money and wants to solve possibly his on problem or someone they care about.

Any company that finds a cure will be bought out and they will try to make a treatment (a pill a day) from even what could potentially be a cure. This is idea is not conspiracy but simply economics 101

 

[JonnyKid]

true gravesen!

 

[macbeth81]

I found a copy of the Collaboration and Technology Transfer Agreement between Replicel and Shisedio. As you can see from Exhibit B, there was no additional data provided regarding efficacy. Only 12-month safety data, which aligns with what they told me. Also note Exhibit D, that all four members of the Research and Development Committee were coauthors in Shisedio's patents. Hopefully two heads are better than one and hopefully their experts know a way to increase efficacy because it needs it.


http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1205059/000106299314001423/exhibit4-6.htm

 

[hellouser]

Recent interview with David Hall here:

http://www.midasletter.com/2014/10/replicel-life-sciences-inc-ceo-david-hall-interview-podcast/

 

[bilboswaggins]

Before 20-30 years ago we didnt know nothing about hair loss.

P.S. Sorry for my mistakes in writing. English is not my native language.

actually finasteride has been out for more than 20 years so given how much technology has advanced, progress in hair restoration has been pathetic

 

[hellouser]

actually finasteride has been out for more than 20 years so given how much technology has advanced, progress in hair restoration has been pathetic

Hit the nail on the head.

Also, stem cells have been known for about 44 years and researchers are still fvcking around with mice. How about some progress on humans for a change?

 

[hellouser]

We know about computers 80 years ago, but we didnt have computers and internet like this in 1980. God knows how computers will look in 2030. And we cant even compare science with medicine, because it is very different general. If you think that hair loss is easy to cure then why YOU dont cure it? Go get a education and cure it. Its easy to say something negative and blame scientist for that, but we dont know the whole truth. A lot of good scientist tried to cure hair loss or even understand it, but they failed most of them. Still we dont have technology and knowledge to cure hair loss perfectly. First science have to understand why we loose hair and which genes are blame for that and then cure it. Without that we only guess and thats why we failed all the time.

44 years of stem cell knowledge without getting a cure is 44 years of failure. To give this a pass is to tolerate mediocrity. Anyone who thinks otherwise clearly isn't and will never be in upper management of any company.

If I had known in high school I'd end up as a balding social reject cast out like a common circus freak and not given the time of day by women without a cure in sight for hair loss I would have put all my efforts into biology and science and worked on this **** myself.

 

[benjt]

Kid_A, forget it. There's no point in reasoning, some people like to complain because it gives them relief. They have no clue about the fact that there was gradual progress and only by building iteratively on previous findings new solutions can be made. Just knowing about stem cells doesn't mean that our understanding for producing and culturing DSC cells was already there. It required much more knowledge which was gathered in the meantime. But some people are either unwilling or intellectually incapable of understanding that. The Dunning-Kruger effect is also at play here. Because they have no clue about these things they think it's easy.


Anyway, I have a "call for action" to make:
As some of you might've read, Future_HT_Doc sent an email to RepliCel to inquire about procedure costs and projected treatment availability. After all, this is something all of us are desperate to know. However, Future_HT_Doc hasn't received any reply from RepliCel.

But! RepliCel has a Facebook page, where only very few people have made posts in the past. It is simply not well known, but it is public and RepliCel have answered enquiries there in the past. As posts on their Facebook page are public, they can't afford not to reply.

My idea now would be that as many of us as possible ask these two questions, put one way or another, on their facebook page:
1) When will treatment be available (in the US and/or Japan)?
2) How much will it probably cost?

The more people post these questions on their Facebook page, the bigger the pressure on RepliCel to give a public response on their Facebook page.

 

[macbeth81]

My idea now would be that as many of us as possible ask these two questions, put one way or another, on their facebook page:
1) When will treatment be available (in the US and/or Japan)?
2) How much will it probably cost?

They already answered 1) for US release. They stated four years but four years from when is somewhat ambiguous; it could be 2018, 2020 or later.

https://www.facebook.com/RepliCel/p..._id=711837128875122&offset=0&total_comments=5

 

[hellouser]

They already answered 1) for US release. They stated four years but four years from when is somewhat ambiguous; it could be 2018, 2020 or later.

https://www.facebook.com/RepliCel/p..._id=711837128875122&offset=0&total_comments=5

2019 in USA.

Earlier in Japan as per new regulations that are supposed to allow conditional release during Phase II trials, although David Hall said in two weeks it will be confirmed about the regulation and then went on to say only safety is required for commercial release in Japan.

- - - Updated - - -

Kid_A, forget it. There's no point in reasoning, some people like to complain because it gives them relief. They have no clue about the fact that there was gradual progress and only by building iteratively on previous findings new solutions can be made. Just knowing about stem cells doesn't mean that our understanding for producing and culturing DSC cells was already there. It required much more knowledge which was gathered in the meantime. But some people are either unwilling or intellectually incapable of understanding that. The Dunning-Kruger effect is also at play here. Because they have no clue about these things they think it's easy.

Oh please... 44 years dude. FOURTY FOUR, and it's not like its one guy working on all this either. That's TERRIBLE progress no matter how you look at it or how pseudo-positive you try to come off.