- Reaction score
- 5,624
ok yea i can see the probably blonde popular girl type saying "omg! how is no one having sex in that place with all the nice nerdy guys!" LOL
ok yea i can see the probably blonde popular girl type saying "omg! how is no one having sex in that place with all the nice nerdy guys!" LOL
WSJ, FT, Bloomberg and Reuters still remain very reliable sources for business news, and are doing okay financially too. Broadly speaking, Zero Hedge is not a reliable source and a poor way to stay informed unless you're hyper-literate in finance and economics and able to use it as a sort of contrarian signal.
Economics is nothing like physics though. It really wishes it were a hard science, and sometimes has the trappings of one, but it's not.
Certainly, for some very liquid instruments, at certain points in time, you'll get something close to a semi-strong version of efficient markets where new information is incorporated almost instantly in prices. Things like algo trading actually do help make the market more efficient by more quickly picking up on new information and making trading decisions based on it. In general, the emerging market hypothesis is useful as a general lens through which to view the markets. Inefficiencies in pricing of publicly traded instruments are generally small and big movements are usually because of information which is not yet public knowledge, like you mention.
And Reuters and Bloomberg are complete garbage now? I use Reuters articles all the time for research and haven't run into any obvious mistakes or flaws. There may have been some heavily publicized ones that I haven't picked up on. I'll say I interface with public BB mostly through their magazine and their television station. Certainly, it's made for a different audience, with more editorializing and more commercial content as opposed to pure wire-style articles. But in general, the standards of journalism (fact-checking and timeliness) and the quality of the commentary is quite high.
Since you bring up the Economist here, I think what people mean when they criticize maintream sources is that they want editorializing and more specifically, the shrewd insider-type voice who seems to be giving you the real dirt on how the market is doing. Certainly, there's a place for that but it's unfair to bring down traditional, mainstream journalism as there is a good bit of craft that goes into it and the business newspapers especially are quite well-funded and diligent in doing their job. They are very useful sources if you keep in mind the limits of what they can do; i.e., they can't and shouldn't tell you what to think, they give you pieces to put together inside your frame of understanding and prior knowledge.
That seems to be a superficial similarity though, in my opinion you can't really argue that physics and economics are broadly similar since they both produce counter-intuitive results. Without having looked all too much into this, I would assume that the tendency towards counter-intuitive findings is shared across most fields; take sociology for example, over the years studies have shown that children learn better the less homework they're given, and that recidivism decreases the better the criminals are treated, both findings that go against common sense.
Re-interpreting your statements here, I'll say that there is definitely a huge value-add in getting a deeper understanding of finance and economics through non-ideological sources. It gives you a framework through which you can interpret current events and the reporting you read in mainstream and alternative sources. So much of what passes for literature on "economics" is biased and ideologically charged, to where it's hard to know where the punditry ends and the science begins. In particular, there is a ton of Austrian sh*t out there which I generally just find useless.
overcomplicated BS used to confuse people and that people pretend to understand to feel superior.
@Guzam it would be informative if you could link to one or two articles from Bloomberg that you consider representative and provided a brief explanation as to why you consider them problematic. In general I find Bloomberg media more reliable than the rest of the mainstream media, they make a more honest and more rigorous effort to look at multiple sides and to do actual investigation and critical thinking, rather than just stenography like CNN and the Washington Post engage in.
You made a comparison to physics, which is fitting as a lot of economics was built by lapsed physicists such as Robert Lucas. You said the distinction is that physics can be empirically verified. That's true. However, I'll note that there is a huge branch of physics which is highly speculative and not empirically verified, multiple branches in fact. We have string theory, the multiverse, grand unified theory, supersymmetric theory, weakly-interacting massive particles, f(R) gravity, et cetera. These are beautifully structured models that many people to be true that currently cannot be tested, and they are derived coherently from base axioms. They are as such a decent analogy for economics and the fact is ... they don't do that well. Some of them eventually do get tested, and they fail. For example no proton decay got measured in the 1980s, when it was finally testable. The current WIMP dark matter experiments are all failing. There is no supersymmetry seen at the large hadron collider.
These are great theories (not including the multiverse in my opinion), developed by brilliant people. The mathematics are robust. But we have to accept that they may be inaccurate, that they may be missing assumptions in their axioms, or that the axioms are simply incorrect. The same may be true of the Modigliani-Miller theorem.