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Is 2 hours really sufficient?
Guys Let's All Get Rich - Are You Ready?
- Thread starter macaroni
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Is 2 hours really sufficient?
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- 3,025
No, but it's not a giant catastrophe one way or another yet which is nice. We'll see if the world still exists when we wake up tomorrow.
- Reaction score
- 3,025
- Reaction score
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Realistically actually I think it will stabilize temporarily, as a lot of people who would have been putting money into BTC will now be putting their money into futures on BTC due to personal preference or financial restriction.
By spreading the potential ways money can go "into" BTC, there is less need to buy BTC to make money off BTC. This might take the heat off for the next few weeks a bit. Another futures option is opening in a week again. So whatever effect this one has (which so far has been pretty neutral or calming) the next will likely have as well.
We might get a few cool weeks. That would be nice for me. So maybe I'm just telling myself what I want to hear. I mean history suggests this sh*t just keeps going up no matter what so maybe nothing matters anyway and mac is right.
By spreading the potential ways money can go "into" BTC, there is less need to buy BTC to make money off BTC. This might take the heat off for the next few weeks a bit. Another futures option is opening in a week again. So whatever effect this one has (which so far has been pretty neutral or calming) the next will likely have as well.
We might get a few cool weeks. That would be nice for me. So maybe I'm just telling myself what I want to hear. I mean history suggests this sh*t just keeps going up no matter what so maybe nothing matters anyway and mac is right.
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- 3,815
A whole lot of uninformed FUDsters who don't understand what the futures actually are were kicking off a lot of the nonsense about shorting action. The futures are cash settled first of all, so the money in the futures market is completely unrelated to the actual bitcoin market.What it does it allow institutions a liquid and established means of hedging or betting on price rices or falls without direct exposure, which they can manipulate accordingly or arbitrage in the spot market. This also offers firms and funds with regulatory issues inhibiting participation in the actual bitcoin markets a way in and further offers it institutional legitimacy, lowering the chances of government intervention. This is VERY positive and a natural evolution of the space. Certainly it creates a potential net-negative in that it offers a hedgeable means of short selling for institutions, but conversely it offers more liquidity and potential to bet on upside movement. To suggest that it's simply a means of institutions betting on price falls in the futures market and attempting to manipulate the spot market downwards is most importantly a conspiracy with no evidence, but it also doesn't take into account longer term valuation, intrinsic utility, network size and use cases. Institutions could attempt to do this in for example a wheat market, but it doesn't mean that wheat becomes worthless simply because they have attempted to manipulate prices to profit on futures contracts in the short term.
Anyone who says they understand exactly what it means for the market is being disingenuous. Realistically I can't see how it will drastically reduce volatility and in the few hours they have been on today that certainly hasn't changed. Ultimately whatever effect this has in the short term doesn't change the long term fundamental value prospects or adoption curve in the spot price and exchange market. The CME futures arriving on the 18th was considered the main event as well, not the CMOE futures.
- Reaction score
- 3,025
This is the best article I read on the effect of futures trading.
https://www.coindesk.com/threat-bitcoin-futures/
Their perspective is the same as mine - that if nothing else were to change, it would exert a downward pressure on the price at least short term, as (1) some people that were going to invest in BTC will put their money into futures instead, and (2) the new choice of shorting creates a negative pressure directly encouraging people to sell for fear that it will drop.
So overall the futures trading may likely slow the exponential increase slightly while it kicks in and builds momentum. The effect will vary with the amount of money going into the futures market. Until the futures market is fully developed, it won't have a full effect yet. They suggest that based on what's been seen in gold, a fully developed futures market will be 10x the size of the BTC market, which is around $300 billion. That means the futures market has a shitload of growth still to be expected, some of which will siphon off the growth of BTC. This is where the potential stabilization effect comes in as some of the money that was being pumped in will now go to futures instead. So that may be at least weeks or even months that this will exert its slowing effect over.
But in addition, which they touch on too, as awareness and media and exposure builds, more people will want BTC, so the demand from average people and new investors will still go up, which will continue to exert an upward pressure on the price.
I think the next few weeks will be a good time to stock up if you have any financial reserves left to do so. Even if it keeps climbing, it would only do so likely faster without this futures situation. So now's still as good a time as any.
As for the upper possible limit of a Bitcoin, I was just was reading this article, and I'm curious your thoughts @JeanLucBB :
Is this practical to expect? Will it level itself off naturally or will it just bust? If it levels off on its own and actually stabilizes at a high level, how will the world adapt? Does all other currency devalue to compensate?
I'm still hesitant to sell at any stage along the way, because those are the two possibilities. Either it will get there and the world will change, or it will get close and then bust. The anarchist in me says maybe the world changes. And if not, it will be a hell of a ride to the "bust" ...
One way or another the rapidly growing value of BTC will have to hit up against the realities of the current financial system. Looks like $50K is around where that reckoning begins. I don't think BTC will disappear in that fight. I think everything else will just have to bend to accommodate it.
And if it reaches $350K it will overtake gold completely. Can that be expected? What happens when an arbitrary digital currency software is worth more than gold?
At $4 million a bitcoin, it will overtake all the entire world's current money supply. Do we get there? What crashes? Bitcoin or the global economy?
Anything that slows the growth trajectory of BTC will likely be a good thing for it long term, as once it climbs above $50k the world will need to start adjusting to it. And if the world can't adjust as quickly as BTC rises, that's when you get a bubble that will at least temporarily burst.
sh*t's getting f*****g real. This is the serious phase now.
https://www.coindesk.com/threat-bitcoin-futures/
Their perspective is the same as mine - that if nothing else were to change, it would exert a downward pressure on the price at least short term, as (1) some people that were going to invest in BTC will put their money into futures instead, and (2) the new choice of shorting creates a negative pressure directly encouraging people to sell for fear that it will drop.
So overall the futures trading may likely slow the exponential increase slightly while it kicks in and builds momentum. The effect will vary with the amount of money going into the futures market. Until the futures market is fully developed, it won't have a full effect yet. They suggest that based on what's been seen in gold, a fully developed futures market will be 10x the size of the BTC market, which is around $300 billion. That means the futures market has a shitload of growth still to be expected, some of which will siphon off the growth of BTC. This is where the potential stabilization effect comes in as some of the money that was being pumped in will now go to futures instead. So that may be at least weeks or even months that this will exert its slowing effect over.
But in addition, which they touch on too, as awareness and media and exposure builds, more people will want BTC, so the demand from average people and new investors will still go up, which will continue to exert an upward pressure on the price.
I think the next few weeks will be a good time to stock up if you have any financial reserves left to do so. Even if it keeps climbing, it would only do so likely faster without this futures situation. So now's still as good a time as any.
As for the upper possible limit of a Bitcoin, I was just was reading this article, and I'm curious your thoughts @JeanLucBB :
At $47,400, those absurdities of the system will begin to become self evident, not just in relative asset-class value terms but also in total energy-cost terms to support the system. For example, as Zimmermann noted at the end of November,
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/12...when-bitcoins-market-cap-overtakes-world-gdp/
This suggests there IS a hard upper limit to the possible value of BTC, and we're actually approaching it. To follow this math further, if each BTC reaches $350,000, the bitcoin market will be the same size as all the actual physical coins and banknotes of the world as well as the global gold supply.- As a thought, experiment 21 million Bitcoins at $50,000 each would mean a total market cap of $1 trillion
- The total value of all the world’s coins and banknotes is estimated at $7.6 trillion*
- At $1275 per ounce the total value of all the world’s gold is $7.7 trillion*
- The total value of the world’s money ( Broad Money ) is est. at $90.4 trillion*
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/12...when-bitcoins-market-cap-overtakes-world-gdp/
Is this practical to expect? Will it level itself off naturally or will it just bust? If it levels off on its own and actually stabilizes at a high level, how will the world adapt? Does all other currency devalue to compensate?
I'm still hesitant to sell at any stage along the way, because those are the two possibilities. Either it will get there and the world will change, or it will get close and then bust. The anarchist in me says maybe the world changes. And if not, it will be a hell of a ride to the "bust" ...
One way or another the rapidly growing value of BTC will have to hit up against the realities of the current financial system. Looks like $50K is around where that reckoning begins. I don't think BTC will disappear in that fight. I think everything else will just have to bend to accommodate it.
And if it reaches $350K it will overtake gold completely. Can that be expected? What happens when an arbitrary digital currency software is worth more than gold?
At $4 million a bitcoin, it will overtake all the entire world's current money supply. Do we get there? What crashes? Bitcoin or the global economy?
Anything that slows the growth trajectory of BTC will likely be a good thing for it long term, as once it climbs above $50k the world will need to start adjusting to it. And if the world can't adjust as quickly as BTC rises, that's when you get a bubble that will at least temporarily burst.
sh*t's getting f*****g real. This is the serious phase now.
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- 3,815
At $1275 per ounce the total value of all the world’s gold is $7.7 trillion*
This number is a medium term target for the entire crypto market in my opinion. For both institutional investors and retail it is unlikely they will allow gold to hold up as it is fundamentally flawed by lack of divisibility, cost of carry, purity test cost, third party risk if held by others, general storage risk (all of this far worse in third world countries as well) and the fact that it is mostly held by government and central banks. Simply put, it lacks a single ounce of usable utility as a store of value, particularly for sophisticated and institutional investors that want a legitimate hedge against economic downturn who are unlikely to find this in an asset mostly held by the institutions they are attempting to hedge against.
Cryptos ease of exchange and storage makes it more viable as a mainstream store of value that can attain mass adoption, but it also has features that would allow it to replace fiat currency in the case of a legitimate economic collapse without severe growing pains (at least when scaling solutions begin to arrive over the next few years), which again makes it far more appealing and likely to succeed gold as the premier store of value asset. It is a MAJOR evolution in the notion of a store of value asset with huge benefits to all who are invested in this space and therefore likely to succeed gold. Winkelvoss Twins and Michael Novogratz being among a few high profile investors in the space that agree with me on this.
On the point of a hard cap in value, I think the point at which the risk/return paradigm becomes less attractive than say the general equities market in the US for example is somewhere around the 100k USD mark. I would start to take profits at around 75-100k USD. In saying that, if you do actually want a store of value asset in the longer term you should never sell all of it, simply re-balance your overall investment portfolio accordingly as it breaches beyond this target.
You're right though, we're closer to the end game at this point than we are to a little experiment. It is unlikely to burst permanently because it has legitimate intrinsic utility. It's like saying in 1998 (as some did) that the internet would burst and no one would be using it in a few years. The utility remains long after the hysteria ends.
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What’s the next best exchange to use for a uk based, new investor that only wants to drop a few hundred to start with? Coinbase have simply been pathetic, their ID verification has been an absolute nightmare and I can’t see it being resolved seeing as everything on their site appears to be run by incompetent, very primitive AI.
Wanted to buy yesterday when the futures fud had the price in the low $14 thousands. Now it’s soaring back to $17k
Wanted to buy yesterday when the futures fud had the price in the low $14 thousands. Now it’s soaring back to $17k
- Reaction score
- 3,815
I was going to buy with some of my dads company money but it's still in the middle of a f*****g bank transfer. Money doesn't move fast enough to buy the f*****g dip.
Greater customer accessibility and faster moving transactions has to be the next step for crypto if it's going to reach mainstream status proper. My experience so far has been completely unacceptable. I just want to buy the damn thing and it feels like I'm applying for a licence to practise medicine. Think of the accessibility of sites like Facebook, Amazon and Google which really made the internet mainstream and hooked the "normies" in. Crypto has a long way to go if it wants to see mainstream adoption.
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- 3,815
Maybe try Kraken. I don't think there are a lot of great options for the UK. I think coinfloor is another option.
blackg
Senior Member
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- 5,723
Only "cucks" feel like cucks.
Give it some thought.
- Reaction score
- 3,815
Should I get my best friend f*** my girlfriend when I get one
Also when you got cucked did the guy wear a condom?
blackg
Senior Member
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- 5,723
This statement shows your insecurities.
- Reaction score
- 3,815
I am not even joking though. I have always had an interest in letting my best friend f*** my girlfriend or a girl I like and f*****g his girlfriend and future wife too.
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- 3,815
I agree, but that's just human nature. No investment is a sure bet, it's all a matter of probabilities. Individuals are limited by length of investment horizon too, it can't help but hurt when you see your fiat profits drop even if just in the short term. No one wants to make money slow, they want it asap.
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Very interesting article on the speculated potential growth curves of btc.
It's predicated on the belief that I share that currently BTC is overvalued due to hype. It's my hope the futures will help calm that. No one should hope for bubble tier growth unless you like gambling.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4130926-bitcoin-reach-142000
Model 3 is the most conservative trajectory based off the principle that current prices are overvalued relative to the prior price curve and the amount it costs to mine new btc.
However even according to model 3 we hit 1 million in 10 years. Again, recall that it BTC hits 4 million it will be equal to the total value of all money currently in existence.
Will it level off? When if so? No one knows of course.
I think 10x gains are still absolutely to be expected. But 100x gains? Possibly still over a decade or two. Could be a good retirement plan at this point if all factors hold but no longer a get rich quick scheme unless you're very good at riding the waves.
More likely if you want 100x gains fast you need to look at smaller cryptos and hope they grow. But that's riskier of course. BTC is now the de facto gold standard for crypto and that is unlikely to change.
In addition just because BTC is overvalued does not mean it will have a major "dip" beyond it's normal fluctuations. It may just run level for a while until the price makes better sense. The hype isn't disappearing and that will always buoy it.
It's predicated on the belief that I share that currently BTC is overvalued due to hype. It's my hope the futures will help calm that. No one should hope for bubble tier growth unless you like gambling.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4130926-bitcoin-reach-142000
Model 3 is the most conservative trajectory based off the principle that current prices are overvalued relative to the prior price curve and the amount it costs to mine new btc.
However even according to model 3 we hit 1 million in 10 years. Again, recall that it BTC hits 4 million it will be equal to the total value of all money currently in existence.
Will it level off? When if so? No one knows of course.
I think 10x gains are still absolutely to be expected. But 100x gains? Possibly still over a decade or two. Could be a good retirement plan at this point if all factors hold but no longer a get rich quick scheme unless you're very good at riding the waves.
More likely if you want 100x gains fast you need to look at smaller cryptos and hope they grow. But that's riskier of course. BTC is now the de facto gold standard for crypto and that is unlikely to change.
In addition just because BTC is overvalued does not mean it will have a major "dip" beyond it's normal fluctuations. It may just run level for a while until the price makes better sense. The hype isn't disappearing and that will always buoy it.
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