I'm just asking for opinion since I know no one has the answer, but do you think it's possible the "cure" will cost like $500k when it's first out?I'm not actually sure what the development process for something like this would look like. Standard clinical trials in the USA take 7-10~ years, but this seems like cultured stem cell coupled with manually putting them back in place where follicles would be. Could be a lot quicker if it doesn't have to go through that same style process.
I would uneducatedly assume this will only need to pass safety trials and not phase 3 for efficacy prior to commercialization, as phase 3 is designed for efficacy vs existing treatments, and this would technically be an orphan procedure.
For the average joe? I would assume this process (if as successful as they claim) would be booked clean out by every young rich guy and women with imperfect hair. Similar to what Tsuji was saying, there will probably be significant cost barriers to start that will come down as it becomes more widely used. I also assume that their end goal is to have existing hair transplant clinics as the people using this procedure. Once it's in every clinic it will probably cost similar to what existing hair transplants do (and not Turkey hair transplants), or slightly more. I would assume 20-30k USD for a full head of hair.
traditional transplant (relocating follicles) will never be a cure for me. even mathematically is doesn't make sense. It will always be an illusionWell, you have to define "cure". For me it is a cure. He doesn't even recommend using Finasteride after his sessions with nw6. You pay around 40k€ get a full head of hair and don't have to f*** around with your hormones.
The only time a hair transplant is a true "cure" is if you've got genes for minor recession or are only losing hair in the front at a older age (ie 35+). One the crown/mid section starts to go you will never be able to recreate full density with even the most artistically skilled surgeon.Well, you have to define "cure". For me it is a cure. He doesn't even recommend using Finasteride after his sessions with nw6. You pay around 40k€ get a full head of hair and don't have to f*** around with your hormones.
Easy answer: If I get all my hairs back and don't lose them again I'm cured. If I already lost a good portion of my hair and get the rest transplanted it's a good treatment, but it won't "cure" my old hair back.Well, you have to define "cure". For me it is a cure. He doesn't even recommend using Finasteride after his sessions with nw6. You pay around 40k€ get a full head of hair and don't have to f*** around with your hormones.
No chance it costs 500k, that would price out almost 99% of the market. The CEO specifically quoted Wayne Rooney spending 40k pounds on his hair transplant as an example of what wealthy people will spend for some hair. I think that's a good idea of pricing for this, probably 50-100k USD when it starts, coming down in the following years to 10-30k~? The cost will also vary similar to how hair transplants costs vary by surgeon now because this procedure is going to depend on the skill of the technician who is placing the hair scaffolds in your head. If it's done poorly you'll have full density but it will still look poor.I'm just asking for opinion since I know no one has the answer, but do you think it's possible the "cure" will cost like $500k when it's first out?
His best candidates look great but even they won't be able to go surfing without looking like there's an octopus attacking their head. A cure for me would allow me to go swimming in sunlight with 0 scalp showing.Well, you have to define "cure". For me it is a cure. He doesn't even recommend using Finasteride after his sessions with nw6. You pay around 40k€ get a full head of hair and don't have to f*** around with your hormones.
Ah, when you say it would be booked by young rich people I thought you meant $500k+ since Tsuji allegedly quoted his to start at around $300k. I think a starting point of $100k would be extremely reasonable for the amount of manual labor involved and what you'd be getting. To get this within the first year do you think "connections" or "status" would be required or would your average joe with $100k would be able to get it without too much difficulty? (Again just asking for your opinion, I know no one knows)No chance it costs 500k, that would price out almost 99% of the market. The CEO specifically quoted Wayne Rooney spending 40k pounds on his hair transplant as an example of what wealthy people will spend for some hair. I think that's a good idea of pricing for this, probably 50-100k USD when it starts, coming down in the following years to 10-30k~? The cost will also vary similar to how hair transplants costs vary by surgeon now because this procedure is going to depend on the skill of the technician who is placing the hair scaffolds in your head. If it's done poorly you'll have full density but it will still look poor.
Just a random guess but you can't exactly tap into the "multi-billion dollar hair treatment industry" if you price out 99.5% in that segment.
I mean those are still images taken in perfect lighting conditions to show off the results, and we don't even know if they've put product in their hair for the pictures. Show me one of those guys with 0 product on a windy day and you'd probably be very obviously lacking hair/density.His best candidates look great but even they won't be able to go surfing without looking like there's an octopus attacking their head. A cure for me would allow me to go swimming in sunlight with 0 scalp showing.
SMP could be a solution here, even tho from what I saw not a single patient would need a SMP.His best candidates look great but even they won't be able to go surfing without looking like there's an octopus attacking their head. A cure for me would allow me to go swimming in sunlight with 0 scalp showing.
Bacon
Could be, I could be completely wrong, but if you watch that video they talk about the different market segments of people who need this therapy, and it's not just guys with male pattern baldness. It's burn victims, cancer patients, people with AA as well. Would it be realistic for this company to assume that the market for cancer survivors who were also elite level wealthy was worthy of mentioning?Ah, when you say it would be booked by young rich people I thought you meant $500k+ since Tsuji allegedly quoted his to start at around $300k. I think a starting point of $100k would be extremely reasonable for the amount of manual labor involved and what you'd be getting. To get this within the first year do you think "connections" or "status" would be required or would your average joe with $100k would be able to get it without too much difficulty? (Again just asking for your opinion, I know no one knows)
Imo that's just a generic statement to make the company look better and was him trying to suck up to the guy from Fortunis. But I'm pretty positive right now since they said Allergan would take their potential solution to market or potentially acquire them. That was a missing part of the "vision" for me for a while as I often wondered how they'd get it to people with their small capacity.the ceo said several times that it's not just about money. That should also have been one of the reasons for Fortunis. Of course I am not so naive that I think they are not interested in money at all. But he made an authentic impression on me. I think they really want to help people, so they will try to adjust the prices. In the end they'll still make billions (hopefully)
I don't think so, these guys are not big pharma tyrants. Their chief technology officer in the video, Cenk Sumen, was working on cancer before this (and might still be), and the co-founder Dr Terskikh is a Stanford academic who refused to drop his research position to get rich off this product.Imo that's just a generic statement to make the company look better and was him trying to suck up to the guy from Fortunis.
Isn't it more likely Dr. Terskikh just wants to maintain financial stability incase the company flops? Also, their CEO kind of comes off as a typical slick businessman. I could be wrong but I personally don't mind too much even if he is as long as there's a cure. It's just that literally every person/company working on hair loss says it's their mission to help sufferers so...I don't think so, these guys are not big pharma tyrants. Their chief technology officer in the video, Cenk Sumen, was working on cancer before this (and might still be), and the co-founder Dr Terskikh is a Stanford academic who refused to drop his research position to get rich off this product.
Of course they all want to make money, but it does seem they chose Fortunis because they seem to care more about making a splash and a legacy for themselves rather then just flipping companies for price multiples. That entire video is basically Fortunis jerking themselves off about their values and mission.
People in startups don't work for free. He's get a salary from them and if it flops just go get whichever research job he wanted when it was finished.Isn't it more likely Dr. Terskikh just wants to maintain financial stability incase the company flops? Also, their CEO kind of comes off as a typical slick businessman. I could be wrong but I personally don't mind too much even if he is as long as there's a cure. It's just that literally every person/company working on hair loss says it's their mission to help sufferers so...
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And yeah, Fortunis is trying really hard to hype themselves up saying they only invest in the best of the best of the best
He's getting both right now though, wouldn't he? Full salary from being a researcher and full salary from his position at Stemson. Financially it makes perfect sense to maintain his research position. Imo if it really weren't about the money he'd have left it to work full time at Stemson including doing some of the grunt work.People in startups don't work for free. He's get a salary from them and if it flops just go get whichever research job he wanted when it was finished.
Like if the follicles would be AA proof?I still try to find somehow some paper or a presentation, where they specifically talk about their approach in conjuction with Androgenetic Alopecia, how it works for that... oof