I vehemently believe it will be available in Japan at least, long before 2030. Just remember that Tsuji and his team have been working on this since 2010-2012, and now they are announcing that they believe they can move to human trials in 2019 ( that is not an abnormal amount of research time and should not be seen as a deterrent, androgenic alopecia is very complex, we all know that… At least I hope so).
Update From The God Himself - Dr. Takashi Tsuji
- Thread starter kingjohn
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I’m not part of the research team working on this technology, but given Japan’s regulatory oversight when it comes to cellular-based Technology, the potential profits, The prestige to be gained within the Cellular/regenerative medical community (Tsuji has expressed his desire and pride for this to be a “Japanese born“ Technology/treatment, and the long-standing research and well respected head researcher... I would say there’s a lot to be excited about, this isn’t something that can be brushed off by some of the old guys who heard about some topical cream 10-30 years ago, or that a treatment for baldness was coming in five years… This is serious science.
See what I mean! Your statement is pulled directly from some article likely quoting an anonymous source. “What i say” is a reasonable extrapolation based on the fact that this has been in early research for almost a decade now and is projected (in a very recent announcement) to begin human trials this year or early 2020. And then incorporate what I know about The processes of clinical trials How time consuming and volatile they are, find me a large scale clinical trial where phase I was fully completed and a phase II was nearly completed ( necessary requirement for the Japanese Cellular oversight committee to allow “conditional commercialization“ A.k.a. early access undoubtably marked up) in one year! Good luck.
Just to give you a Little perspective, this is what it is like for pretty much all western countries, Japan used to operate pretty much the same way until they implemented the brilliant idea of keeping pharmaceuticals and cellular based therapies separate and overseen by different administrations.
- Phase 0 of a clinical trial is done with a very small number of people, usually fewer than 15. Investigators use a very small dose of medication to make sure it isn’t harmful to humans before they start using it in higher doses for later phases.
- During phase I of a clinical trial, investigators spend several months looking at the effects of the medication on about 20 to 80 people who have no underlying health conditions. 70% make it through this phase.
- Phase II of a clinical trial involves several hundred participants who are living with the condition that the new medication is meant to treat. They’re usually given the same dose that was found to be safe in the previous phase. ( in Japan they would need to be pretty much near completion of this phase for when they can begin offering treatment early to the lucky few, keep in mind this means no adverse reactions, no investor fallout, etc. All of which can lengthen any part of a clinical trial indefinitely). Investigators monitor participants for several months or years to see how effective the medication is and to gather more information about any side effects it might cause. 30% make it through this phase.
Sources: https://www.healthline.com/health/clinical-trial-phases#phase-i
https://www.centerwatch.com/clinical-trials/overview.aspx/
P.s even if it was a direct quote from Dr. Tsuji... are you living in some paradise where scientists never make overzealous projections for when their research will be complete and ready for market release?
There is just one example for you of someone saying it’s coming out late 2020, despite the fact that human trials have not even begun enrolment for chrissakes! But some article said here by 2020
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Give your lecture to someone else.
I was one of the few who was very skeptical of their timeline from the getgo.
You are wrong.
They claimed a 2020 release in their official announcement.
Who is “they“ Dr. Tsuji? Here is an article where they say they expect commercial released by 2020, keyword they… Nobody specific a.k.a. anonymous source http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201806050032.html you can find many more like this.
Do you remember this https://www.hairlosstalk.com/intera...inal-20-questions.100903/page-14#post-1369830 interview with Tsuji: “I was given permission to tell you all this much from the interview at least:
Human trials to begin 2018. Commercial availability still on track for 2020. ”
What does the announcement that started this thread say? Human trials should begin this year… Oh yes it’s 2019, look at that the research did not go as steadily and quickly as planned incontrovertible, the man said human trials to begin in 2018, evidently that did not happen to anyone with A semblance of knowledge in regards to what these researchers are going through and the obstacles they face this is no surprise, in fact it’s to be expected. But you read “they“ said commercial release 2020, so does that I mean it is set in stone? Again Dr. Tsuji said human trials to begin in 2018, not a some random source the head researcher… And yet here we all look at an announcement did they have overcome hurdles and human trials will begin this year likely potentially early 2020.
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Only asians can save us, white cucks are too busy yapping about me too and transexual non binary lesbogay rights to do anything about male balding.
Baizuo ( literally white left) is a derogatory Chinese neologism used to refer to Western leftist liberal elites. It refers to the left faction in the culture wars in Western politics, implying support of multiculturalism, political correctness and positive discrimination. In more than 400 answers submitted by Zhihu users during 2015 to May 2017, the term is defined as referring to those who are hypocritically obsessed with political correctness in order to satisfy their own feeling of moral superiority motivated from an ignorant and arrogant Western-centric worldview who pity the rest of the world and think they are saviours. A related term is shèngmǔ (圣母, 聖母, literally "holy mother", title for the mother of an emperor), a sarcastic reference to those whose political opinions are guided by emotions and a hypocritical show of selflessness and empathy, represented by celebrities.
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Friend, you are merely speculating.
There is no evidence you can provide us with.
So, hush!
The irony of that is hilarious, what evidence do you have that a 2020 commercialization is realistic. And I just provided you evidence you’re just too lazy to read it, go through what it takes to go through a clinical trial from the initial dosing on humans to the first and second phase 14 months to years if everything goes perfectly, right there plain as day two sources, oh yes also according to the FDA 70% of drugs ( stem cells are still Treated the same as drugs with the FDA unfortunately) make it through the first phase 30% make it through the second . This showcases the large amount of time required to get through the second phase, and it also shows how common it is for products to not make it through the second phase. If you’re idiotic this means nothing because it’s not blatantly spelled out for you and confirmed by a “they“, if you’re capable of extrapolating it’s self-explanatory what that means.
Secondly, are you able to count? Your entire premise hinges on “they“ ( still can’t say who they is) said it will be released in 2020. Ok well Dr. Tsuji said human trials were to commence in 2018, which ment they were on track for a 2020 release.... what is the reasoning for this thread, the announcement that human trials are to commence in 2019 ( march-December who knows, apparently there is some talk of March which is five days away).
So 2018 < 2019, that’s Proof that they overestimated their capabilities and/or ran into trouble’s, but most importantly released a false date incontrovertiblely.
No, Not necessarily! what it shows is that in the largest most well-funded drug oversight committee, that governs the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world that if things go absolutely perfect it takes around 14 months for a drug to get through the second phase of a clinical trial. Yes the percentage of success is low, this shows how volatile new research trying to pass through clinical trial is. However as I’ve stated more than once the Japanese have a different system drugs and cellular-based therapies are treated and governed differently ( Cellular therapies in the US almost never make it to a phase 3). If they can complete the safety aspect of the phase II they can provide the product to customers “as he said conditional commercialization“ Mind you there will be a massive waitlist and a tremendous markup would almost be certain, hardly full commercialization
I agree with your last Statement, time will tell.
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Can You please Tell us where it was mentioned „commercialization By Late 2020“. I only noticed a commercialization by 2020 on The kyocera announcement
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Friend, YOU speculated that the trial will commence in late 2019-early 2020. I haven't speculated once.
Stop speculating. That is what I object to.
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Mein Freund, wieder?
That's what they said in the latest announcements.
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Dude what you wrote may be true for medicine but i think it is different with stem cell based treatments.
You remember replicels first trial? Very high dose... So this proves you are wrong.
Furthermore Tsujis method makes no sense to study in several trials (except for the number of candidates) They can start a trial and continue recruting if it looks good in the beginning. Since they dont need to do a dose ranging investigation the can just contiusly increase the number of participants till the sample size is sufficient for a phase 2 trial. This way they can keep their 2020 prediction.
Don t get me wrong i know there is a lot of speculation from my side here.
But here i stand and have to choose to either believe it is coming 2020. (which is predicted by a higly respected scientist who is backed by giant companies a solid research team and even the japanese government) or believe it is coming out around 2030 (which is predicted by some random guy who used "common sense" i tend to choose the first option.
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That's also speculating, and wishful thinking, to boot.
Tsuji is not highly respected. He will be when he pulls the hf multiplication off.
Being backed by big companies and a government means absolutely nothing in regards to the timeline feasibility.
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Most delays are due to problems raising money. So the backing up of big companies and a government who are wiling to pay means something in regards of timeline feasibility.
Come on dude you quoted me on beliving more in a scientist than some random guy on the internet and you call that wishful thinking? And I used the expression "tend to choose" because I would not be surprised if they get some delay. But a 10 year delay in this case would really surprise me.
You can do better than that!
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That's exactly what I thought about your comment.
A) Tsuji is not highly respected. If so, by whom and how can that be proven?
B) Most approaches fail because humans are different from mice and the approaches' efficacy proves to be non-existent or lower than anticipated in human trials.
Very few trials fail because of inadequate funding.
Yes, Tsuji's deed has more potential because of state funding, but the state funding is no guarantee for success.
What you say is pure wishful thinking. Tut mir leid!
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We did not talk about failing or succses. We talked about keeping the timeline! And often in the hairlossindustrie the fund raising period is longer than they expected it to be what leads to delays.
Tsuji is a leading scientist in a giant project. Alone for his position I would describe him as respected. (I don t want to argue on that cause every person has a different understanding of "respected")
I never said it will be definitly out by 2020 nor did I say there is a warranty the approach will succed. All I said is the leading scientist should have a better guess on the timeline than some random guy on the internet. And you definitly cant argue with that! Period!
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No, state funding does not guarantee that the timeline will be met.
The leading scientist may have no saying on how timelines are set. Timelines are not science.
The 2020 timeline was the most optimistic and it's already obvious it will not be met.
They haven't started recruiting yet.
Freund, Optimismus darfst du haben, aber Optimismus wird selten die Realität.