Will HM become a relaity before 2012?
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30_going_on_60
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as a future NW7 (maybe 6, if I'm lucky) I;d settle for the Norwood 2.5 look if I could be promised that. Too many horror stories about bad transplants that are irreversible. I look decent with a shaved head, so I wouldnt want a very noticeable scar along with a bunch of crappy hair in weird places. If I got the guarantee of no scar, and no detection, I'd probably bite the bullet and pay for it.
sphlanx2006
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I didnt mean to say that there isnt demand for innovative hair loss treatments. I just wanted to point out that there is only a very small percentage of hair loss sufferers who are willing to pay 100,000$(or at least can afford) to get their hair back. And by "willing" i also mean "able to afford"
In other words a HM cure at the cost of 20,000$ has a potential market size of 100million people for europe. If you launch it at a cost of 100,000$ it would narrow the market size at perhaps the 1/10th of the above figure. So if the 20,000$ is enough to cover the cost of development and still give profit, i think the price is more likely to be around there.
It is just an argument to speculate the possible cost of a "finite" HM cure. I just dont think that it will be completely out of reach.
In other words a HM cure at the cost of 20,000$ has a potential market size of 100million people for europe. If you launch it at a cost of 100,000$ it would narrow the market size at perhaps the 1/10th of the above figure. So if the 20,000$ is enough to cover the cost of development and still give profit, i think the price is more likely to be around there.
It is just an argument to speculate the possible cost of a "finite" HM cure. I just dont think that it will be completely out of reach.
30_going_on_60
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Hey...for the record, I'm not arguing with anyone..just discussing. 60 million bald americans, lets be conservative and say 2% of them are able to afford $100 000 for a permanent solution. Thats 1.2 million people, lets say half of them would actually be willing to get it done. That's 600, 000 people willing to pay 6 billion. The amount of hair centers would probably not even be able to cover that demand...I'm not too sure about the costs of the research and implementation, but its a good bet that 6 billion would nevertheless turn in a tidy profit. Its reasonable to assume that prices would drop in time. Nevertheless, I'd be thrilled knowing that the possibility even exists, which sadly it doesn;t. I am cautiosuly optimistic that a cure will be available in 10 years, add another 5 for the price to drop enough to affordable levels, and a good safe bet is in 2022 we can all have a good laugh about the days when we used to worry about our hairloss.
When you count the thousands & thousands of hair transplants done by the hair mills and the men who quit at some point before the job is finished, then my 95% figure might not be very far off.
Of course Bosley/MHR hair mill work is not representative of what top-grade hair transplants can possibly do these days. But several decades' worth of that kind of bad work is still out there every day, showing men a bad idea of what hair transplants can do to them. That discourages a lot of men from looking into hair transplants at all.
Of course Bosley/MHR hair mill work is not representative of what top-grade hair transplants can possibly do these days. But several decades' worth of that kind of bad work is still out there every day, showing men a bad idea of what hair transplants can do to them. That discourages a lot of men from looking into hair transplants at all.
cal said:
Not everything out of Bosley and MHR are crap. I have seen several great hair transplant's form both. The problem is that while some Dr's were very good others sucked. I believe some of the top surgeons today started at these places.
Also why bring up the 95% whn you yourself know who the top Dr's are so your would look fine. You seemed to use the 95% as a reason not to get a hair transplant
I personally might get a hair transplant in the future. The comment wasn't about me. Maybe 95% was a bit of an exaggeration. But it was not a huge exaggeration.
I mean, most people out there are not hair transplant/male pattern baldness experts. They just know that some middle-aged guys still have good looking thick hair while others are bald. The balding ones can spend tens of thousands of dollars on multiple scalp surgeries and they still won't come out anywhere near the "good hair" category. And the severely-bald guys can spend all that money & effort and literally not even come out any better than if they just kept on shaving down.
For the vast majority of the population hair transplant surgeries will sound like a pretty crappy option once they're really informed about the subject.
Imagine if flatchested women trying to get breast implants had to spend $20-40,000 for multiple surgeries, severely scar up that area of their body with line scars, and the BEST possible result they could hope for was one single cup size worth of increase? So an A-cup woman would be spending the price of a new SUV to hopefully become a B-cup, the BEST result that she could ever get in her whole life?
This is more or less the hair/value situation that hair transplants are in right now. This is why I feel that the current hair transplant situation is not going to tell us much about the true demand for a hair replacement method that actually works well.
When future loss is adequately planned for, current hair transplants can't even take a medium-case male pattern baldness guy back to "good hair" category. Let alone the severely-balding percentage of men. (And this group is usually not even getting hair transplants these days, but this percentage of the population would probably be the MOST likely to seek hair replacement if all final results were the same!)
I mean, most people out there are not hair transplant/male pattern baldness experts. They just know that some middle-aged guys still have good looking thick hair while others are bald. The balding ones can spend tens of thousands of dollars on multiple scalp surgeries and they still won't come out anywhere near the "good hair" category. And the severely-bald guys can spend all that money & effort and literally not even come out any better than if they just kept on shaving down.
For the vast majority of the population hair transplant surgeries will sound like a pretty crappy option once they're really informed about the subject.
Imagine if flatchested women trying to get breast implants had to spend $20-40,000 for multiple surgeries, severely scar up that area of their body with line scars, and the BEST possible result they could hope for was one single cup size worth of increase? So an A-cup woman would be spending the price of a new SUV to hopefully become a B-cup, the BEST result that she could ever get in her whole life?
This is more or less the hair/value situation that hair transplants are in right now. This is why I feel that the current hair transplant situation is not going to tell us much about the true demand for a hair replacement method that actually works well.
When future loss is adequately planned for, current hair transplants can't even take a medium-case male pattern baldness guy back to "good hair" category. Let alone the severely-balding percentage of men. (And this group is usually not even getting hair transplants these days, but this percentage of the population would probably be the MOST likely to seek hair replacement if all final results were the same!)
I'm no expert, but I highly doubt it. I still remember when I first started taking propecia about 10 years ago.... I believe they cloned that sheep around then. I was SOOOO certain that by the time I needed it, hair cloning or some kind of equivalent would be readily available. At this point we can only hope, but we don't even know if they'll be successful or not and even if they are, when? how good will it actually be? and how much will it cost? If it is a success, it does seem much less invasive than current hair transplant's and I know I'd mortgage my friggin house for it as would so many men.
I think we're all pretty much so in the same category at this point. We're cautiously optimistic. I guess we just have to keep our eyes and ears open with it.... it certainly sounds reasonable that it could work. They just need to move their asses and get it done! For most of us.... time is a tickin!
I think we're all pretty much so in the same category at this point. We're cautiously optimistic. I guess we just have to keep our eyes and ears open with it.... it certainly sounds reasonable that it could work. They just need to move their asses and get it done! For most of us.... time is a tickin!
When Dolly the sheep was a big story they hadn't even started any clinical trials on HM yet. Now they're in phase#2 trials. That's the difference.
Being at this stage takes real money & confidence in the stuff. An enterpreneurial company not only believes in the stuff working, but they're betting a lot of money that it will actually be a commericially viable product by the time the trials are done.
HM might not be perfect upon release and it might still have setbacks before it gets there. But the actions that ICX has already taken are concrete. They're putting their money where their mouths are.
Being at this stage takes real money & confidence in the stuff. An enterpreneurial company not only believes in the stuff working, but they're betting a lot of money that it will actually be a commericially viable product by the time the trials are done.
HM might not be perfect upon release and it might still have setbacks before it gets there. But the actions that ICX has already taken are concrete. They're putting their money where their mouths are.
cal said:
I think you need to look at Jotronic's and Bobman's before and after pics. Both were VERY BALD.
As far as breast implants go it's the same as hair transplant's, some are good and some are not. Not every boob job looks like the ones on Dr 90210
I agree that there are exceptions and that some hair transplants are downright awesome. But good thick-looking Norwood#2 hair on shiny bald Norwood#6s and #7s is not the normal result for the vast majority of hair mill patients. That's all I was originally arguing.
There's a difference between the "illusion of density" and actual density. We think the "illusion of density" is fine because the male pattern baldness community is collectively so hard-up for ANY decent baldness options that many of us have resorted to putting hair-colored paint on our scalps every morning.
Millions of bald guys worldwide would feel differently about the idea of paying for hair restoration work if they had a GOOD option. Right now they just don't have that. Paying the price of a nice new SUV to have multiple scarring surgeries to fix some part on your body, and having an end result that still leaves that part no more than average at best (probably still below-average) . . . that's crap. Dumping the price of an SUV into a body part should literally make it your best asset, not just a little bit less of an obvious visual problem.
If we want to understand the true demand for a real male pattern baldness option then we need to stop looking at it from the point of view of the current hardcore male pattern baldness community, and start looking at it from the point of view of a normal man who knows nothing about hair loss and didn't even expect to have it happen to him.
There's a difference between the "illusion of density" and actual density. We think the "illusion of density" is fine because the male pattern baldness community is collectively so hard-up for ANY decent baldness options that many of us have resorted to putting hair-colored paint on our scalps every morning.
Millions of bald guys worldwide would feel differently about the idea of paying for hair restoration work if they had a GOOD option. Right now they just don't have that. Paying the price of a nice new SUV to have multiple scarring surgeries to fix some part on your body, and having an end result that still leaves that part no more than average at best (probably still below-average) . . . that's crap. Dumping the price of an SUV into a body part should literally make it your best asset, not just a little bit less of an obvious visual problem.
If we want to understand the true demand for a real male pattern baldness option then we need to stop looking at it from the point of view of the current hardcore male pattern baldness community, and start looking at it from the point of view of a normal man who knows nothing about hair loss and didn't even expect to have it happen to him.
30_going_on_60
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The more this thread continues, the more I think it will be an option sooner rather than later. I was extremely skeptical at first (I still am) but a guaranteed cure has never existed. Hair restoration is amulti billion dollar market in the States alone. And that's only for the something like 2% of people willing to actually do something about it. Imagine if that market size increased by 25 times as much? Intercylex has a gold mine on their hands...and I'm sure they realize the potential...but maybe not even completely.
cal said:
I think you need to stop and realize 99% of people don't check out guys hair all day. I would be willing to bet the first thing you see on a guy is their hair and if it's thinning you focus even more on it.
All I can say is if you don't like the current state of hair transplant's then stop wasting your time on this forum and go buy that new SUV and get on with life. I have no idea where you are getting a new SUV for 20K though. Your hair transplant will also last the rest of your life while your SUV will not.
I believe for 20K you can get about 6K grafts at H+W
It seems part of your problem with hair transplant's is cash and that is never a good thing.
BTW trico scars are good down to a #2 razor.
I recently saw my dermatologist who is an exceptionally bright and educated man..... and was himself bald and has had a hair transplant. He said with absolute certainty that HM is the future and will, for sure, be available and effective "in my lifetime." I don't like the sound of "in my lifetime" (I'm 31) but I hope it's sooner rather than later...... not like i'm the only one LOL. 2012 sounds like a plan to me! Let's all hover over their shoulders and chant "are you done yet? are you done yet? are you done yet?"
One thing I'm curious about... what do we suppose would happen if you still had a good deal of hair on your head and get the procedure done? Would those hairs somehow change? Would they just stick around? Would it just fill in with new hairs around them? Would those hairs fall out and morph into DHT tolerant hairs somehow? Just entered my mind the other day. Any thoughts?
One thing I'm curious about... what do we suppose would happen if you still had a good deal of hair on your head and get the procedure done? Would those hairs somehow change? Would they just stick around? Would it just fill in with new hairs around them? Would those hairs fall out and morph into DHT tolerant hairs somehow? Just entered my mind the other day. Any thoughts?
sphlanx2006
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From what i saw in their graphical presentation (you can see it in another thread on HM forum) there are to potential methods of action: The 1st is improving the thickness of an existing hair by injecting DP cells in it and the other is about the same procedure only it is used to create a new hair.
I guess if you have hair on your head they will use the 1st method in them (i hope it also makes them DHT tolerant) and cover the rest bald areas with the 2nd method.
I guess if you have hair on your head they will use the 1st method in them (i hope it also makes them DHT tolerant) and cover the rest bald areas with the 2nd method.
HT55, I think you took my last post the wrong way.
I'm not saying it's stupid or a waste of money to get traditional transplants. Traditional hair transplants are all we've had to work with for decades. And they're a better purchase than a new truck for thousands of guys.
If there is still not any newer option at the time I'm ready to pull the trigger, then I will personally pay $20-30K for traditional transplants and I would consider it a decent investment of my money without a doubt . . .
. . . But that also puts me in the small minority of all balding men out there.
Traditional hair transplants are obviously not a decent hair loss solution for the majority of the balding percentage of the male population or we would see a hell of a lot more of them out there. In the cosmetic surgery realm, hair transplants are a very big price for a very small gain.
And not only that, the men who have the MOST motivation to pay for restoration work (early & extensive balders in their 20s) are also the WORST candidates to get the work done! Talk about a factor that's artificially lowering the demand for transplants! (Imagine trying to guage the true total demand for breast implants with none of the natural A & B-cup women being part of the evidence yet!)
Traditional hair transplants are not demonstrating what the demand for an affordable complete reversal of the condition would be.
I'm not saying it's stupid or a waste of money to get traditional transplants. Traditional hair transplants are all we've had to work with for decades. And they're a better purchase than a new truck for thousands of guys.
If there is still not any newer option at the time I'm ready to pull the trigger, then I will personally pay $20-30K for traditional transplants and I would consider it a decent investment of my money without a doubt . . .
. . . But that also puts me in the small minority of all balding men out there.
Traditional hair transplants are obviously not a decent hair loss solution for the majority of the balding percentage of the male population or we would see a hell of a lot more of them out there. In the cosmetic surgery realm, hair transplants are a very big price for a very small gain.
And not only that, the men who have the MOST motivation to pay for restoration work (early & extensive balders in their 20s) are also the WORST candidates to get the work done! Talk about a factor that's artificially lowering the demand for transplants! (Imagine trying to guage the true total demand for breast implants with none of the natural A & B-cup women being part of the evidence yet!)
Traditional hair transplants are not demonstrating what the demand for an affordable complete reversal of the condition would be.
iostream71
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with my luck it will arrive in 2012, i'll get it done, then the world will end dec 21st :badmood:
iostream71 said:
LOL..... MY LUCK TOO! I'll take out a 2nd mortgage on my place for it and then it will be swallowed up in a fluke NYC earthquake!
I'm curious...... I've seen the animation and read up on ICX, but i'm a little confused as to what would happen to those of us who might still have hair... miniaturized or otherwise. I'm sure no one is certain because of the limited information available, but if we have hair, will this method (in theory) help those hairs grow stronger as well? It seems like this might be the case, but I'm hoping to hear from one of you egg heads who might understand this better.
Thanks
theanimator
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I was talking to my hair transplant doctor, Dr. Keene about HM and what she thought about it. Her reply was that it is definitely coming, but the cloned hairs will be like baby hairs. I can only assume that this is what the first generation of HM will be like.