Obviously I'm not suggesting that if you act confident but then sound "half retarded" when talking about skills that's going to work. The point is that it's an advantage to come off as confident in yourself, or the outcome of a situation (like an election).
Now, I would say that it's a very big advantage. Huge. Some here for whatever reason think, not so much apparently. That's fine. But the point is that think it would be advantageous to stop talking about confidence as if the only thing to consider is whether or not a person actually IS confident. In fact, if you want something from another person, what most matters is how you are perceived by that person. Be it an attempt to get a date, a job interview, or whatever. Every dude or dudette in a bar who hooks up is not in fact confident. But the many of the ones who aren't managed to fake it. And of course, if you fake something a few times and meet success, then that translates into experience and then real confidence (from predictability). As it relates to this thread, yes, some guys would be very pleased to date a bald girl. But whether or not that bald girl is confident (fake or not) enough to talk to the guy, or even approach him, is indeed entirely relevant. So the odd sarcastic "BUT WHAT ABOUT MUH CONFIDENCE?" replies that are posted in virtually every thread in this board just don't make sense.
One more thing to consider. You say again and again that true confidence comes from predictability of success, having the experience of success. OK. So it's fair to reason that if a person comes off as confident, then this is a strong indicator that they have been and will be successful. So being (or seeming) confident says to the world, I'm successful, I have experience and am good at this. I'm a winner, go with me. This is part of the reason why confidence is so very attractive to people.
Your argument sounds true, but you're also creating the context to make it true.
You name job interviews. Job interviews are occasions in which you are asked to talk about yourself. There is the occasion, you show confidence. What should you do? Of course you try and show you won't be a dick at work.
Sexual relationships are different, IMHO, and are becoming more and more
sui generis type of interactions.
Why? Because seldom will a woman come to you and ask you to
talk about yourself (unless of course you're a
good looking yourself).
More often than not, before you talk to a lady, there will have preventively been a game of glances and gestures that suggest if she's attracted or not, and if he's attracted or not (or he/he, or she/she, whatever suits you).
Sure, you might as well go talk to her even if she shows no interest in you, but man is it hard to pull off.
This is true in pretty much all cultures. Take tango. You don't invite just any "tanguera" to dance. There is a ritual called the "mirata" that serves the purpose of understanding, with your eyes, if she wants to dance or not. I once asked a "tanguera" lady:
how does a man know if she actually wants or not just from the eyes? She replied:
oh, he will know.
There will be indeed casual occasions in which you can actually talk to a lady and show you know who you are and how you could make her happy. But these types of interaction are rarer by the day. The more "visual", and "virtual" interactions are more and more frequent. I think it is partly due to the explosions of the "images in the pocket", i.e. the smartphones. We're bombarded by hundreds of narcissistic images of people showing off and we're so engulfed by them that we don't want to listen to words anymore. We think they're irrelevant and all the world around us seems to agree.
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But what success there can be for a bald average looking guy?
You need to be lucky. If you're lucky, you'll find that one girl that really doesn't care for looks. There are. But they're a few. While ugly guys are A LOT.
