Update From The God Himself - Dr. Takashi Tsuji

[That Guy]

It's going to be very interesting next year to see what Follica can actually do.

Because if it proves to be a viable alternative to transplants, then Riken is dead in the water at this price point.

f*****g nobody would pay for this (even if they could afford it) when a way cheaper, effective alternative exists. This is equivalent to paying off a house upfront, for f***'s sake.

Basically, if that price is real, they may as well just publish their findings and then sit on it until the day comes where they can offer it for a competitive price.

 

[Ollie]

Riken aren’t dead in the water with that price - there are plenty of people to fill their small initial spaces they will be able to provide for.

Follica . Wounding and growth factors. Not at all an efficacious solution to our problem, just another short term coping mechanism.

 

[That Guy]

Riken aren’t dead in the water with that price - there are plenty of people to fill their small initial spaces they will be able to provide for.

No there aren't.

This is cope

 

[Joxy]

Tsuji first must show to the world that his treatment works very well and give results on humans (not mice). Then many other companies will follow his path and create treatments with similar scientific approach. Technology behind stem cell production will be much cheaper in next 5 years.

 

[LongFiveYears]

It's better for some guys here if Tsuji doesn't deliver hair cloning. They would rather accept being bald, than being poor. But, you know what?
Either way, you'll be poor and bald

 

[coolio]

The medical industry is f*****g idiotic for thinking that minoxidil & finasteride sales indicate the demand for a viable treatment.

Nothing tells them anything until some treatment can restore lost hair by whole Norwood levels. The demand for future loss prevention is not comparable. Anyone with half a brain could tell them that.

If there is any remaining doubt, they should consider this: Androgenic loss is androgenic loss. The same treatment that reverses men's hair loss will also reverse thinning for millions of women. Does anyone think middle & older age women won't pay good money for better hair?

 

[Rudi]

The medical industry is f*****g idiotic for thinking that minoxidil & finasteride sales indicate the demand for a viable treatment.

Nothing tells them anything until some treatment can restore lost hair by whole Norwood levels. The demand for future loss prevention is not comparable. Anyone with half a brain could tell them that.

If there is any remaining doubt, they should consider this: Androgenic loss is androgenic loss. The same treatment that reverses men's hair loss will also reverse thinning for millions of women. Does anyone think middle & older age women won't pay good money for better hair?

I agree...if fina and minoxidil were a cure ie giving back all hairs lost, sales would most likely increase enormously.
The sobering fact is that they often are not very effective and cause serious side effects for some.

 

[Armando Jose]

Tsuji first must show to the world that his treatment works very well and give results on humans (not mice).

Exactly, and I think that guys with a lot of money won't be the most willing to do it, they are not the apropiate human "guinea pigs" for this demostration

 

[ZP31]

Then why even bother commercializing it? If the hair loss market is as anemic as everyone says (and it is), why add the extra burden of investing in the infrastructure to sell something that only a few hundred - at best - will ever pay for?

Again, if they actually figured out the tech, there would be any number of large pharmas that would want to partner, licensing the tech to sell around the world, leveraging economies of scale, not keeping it locked up in Japan at $400k a pop. It's just such absolute nonsense.

There are plenty of rich people (models, hollywood elite) that would pay for this twice over.

And the idea that Tsuji’s method wouldn’t be profitable is absolutely ridiculous. It is not a cure for hairloss, it is a solution - to a problem that will be around for a very long time. People aren’t going to stop balding and as this treatment becomes cheaper, it will sore in popularity.

 

[RolfLeeBuckler]

 

[RolfLeeBuckler]

 

[Rho Gain]

No there aren't.

This is cope

People assume that all men care about their hair. They don't. The research says so, the sales say so.

But how can this be? Because most bald men are old, while most bald men on forums are the unfortunate minority that started losing their hair young. I bet the median age of a forum member is 23, while the median age of a thinning man is in the late 30's. That's why bald men don't care - most of them lost their hair late in life, long after it matters. Most of us, however, started losing our hair about a decade or more before them, and so we assume it matters just as much to older bald men as it does to us. It doesn't. They're married. They have kids. They have a career. They have a mortgage. Hair is very, very low on their list of fucks to give.

Given this reality, the market for this treatment at that price point is absolutely miniscule. How many high net worth individuals WHO ARE ALSO BALD and ALSO CARE about being bald AND ALSO WILL TRAVEL TO JAPAN could there possibly be? Because that's your market, bald (mostly young) men whose net worth is north of $10m liquid. How many of you reading this could write a $400,000 check right now that wouldn't bounce? And if you could, would you do it just to get your hair back, even if it represented every penny you've ever made?

They have nothing. This is Japanese face-saving.

 

[That Guy]

wanted to say this for so long but I think you are an idiot

And you're a f*****.

Now that we've both gotten what we've wanted to say off our chests:

Which of you is going to pay around 380k for this?

Which of you is going to pay to go to Japan, stay there, and get this done in 2020? Most of you are probably working jobs that pay less than six figures a year to begin with. Most of you probably don't even own your own home, and if you did, what kind of retard would sell it in place for hair?

"Oh well they'll make money off rich celebrities and sh*t".

Yeah, tell me more about how you guys are all famous millionaires.

In the time I've spent NOT talking about hairloss treatments with people, I've come to realize how utterly insane a lot of posters here are. The fact is: None of you will be getting this done anytime soon. So just accept it, get on finasteride, get on minoxidil, and keep your eye on the forthcoming future tech that you might actually be able to afford before you're 90.

No, it won't give you ED — you have that because you're a soy-swillin' beta b**ch who beats his dick to p**rn twice a day.

People assume that all men care about their hair. They don't. The research says so, the sales say so.

But how can this be? Because most bald men are old, while most bald men on forums are the unfortunate minority that started losing their hair young. I bet the median age of a forum member is 23, while the median age of a thinning man is in the late 30's. That's why bald men don't care - most of them lost their hair late in life, long after it matters. Most of us, however, started losing our hair about a decade or more before them, and so we assume it matters just as much to older bald men as it does to us. It doesn't. They're married. They have kids. They have a career. They have a mortgage. Hair is very, very low on their list of fucks to give.

Given this reality, the market for this treatment at that price point is absolutely miniscule. How many high net worth individuals WHO ARE ALSO BALD and ALSO CARE about being bald AND ALSO WILL TRAVEL TO JAPAN could there possibly be? Because that's your market, bald (mostly young) men whose net worth is north of $10m liquid. How many of you reading this could write a $400,000 check right now that wouldn't bounce? And if you could, would you do it just to get your hair back, even if it represented every penny you've ever made?

They have nothing. This is Japanese face-saving.

I agree with everything you said except your last line.

It's pretty clear, based on their published research using human cells and sh*t, that they absolutely do have a viable treatment that would amount to a functional cure.

I think that what they're doing, is that it would be incredible PR for them to legit be the first with a baldness cure. The fact that no one is paying for it because it's way too expensive right now is irrelevant; because of the fact that you're nation brought the first stem-cell therapy for baldness to market, and in a short time, is a testament to the success of Japan's regenerative medicine laws, which would then inspire more companies to do trials and open locations there, boost medical tourism, and grant RIKEN more government funding for other projects like their skin and tooth regeneration.

 

[Rho Gain]

And you're a f*****.

Now that we've both gotten what we've wanted to say off our chests:

Which of you is going to pay around 380k for this?

Which of you is going to pay to go to Japan, stay there, and get this done in 2020? Most of you are probably working jobs that pay less than six figures a year to begin with. Most of you probably don't even own your own home, and if you did, what kind of retard would sell it in place for hair?

"Oh well they'll make money off rich celebrities and sh*t".

Yeah, tell me more about how you guys are all famous millionaires.

In the time I've spent NOT talking about hairloss treatments with people, I've come to realize how utterly insane a lot of posters here are. The fact is: None of you will be getting this done anytime soon. So just accept it, get on finasteride, get on minoxidil, and keep your eye on the forthcoming future tech that you might actually be able to afford before you're 90.

No, it won't give you ED — you have that because you're a soy-swillin' beta b**ch who beats his dick to p*rn twice a day.



I agree with everything you said except your last line.

It's pretty clear, based on their published research using human cells and sh*t, that they absolutely do have a viable treatment that would amount to a functional cure.

I think that what they're doing, is that it would be incredible PR for them to legit be the first with a baldness cure. The fact that no one is paying for it because it's way too expensive right now is irrelevant; because of the fact that you're nation brought the first stem-cell therapy for baldness to market, and in a short time, is a testament to the success of Japan's regenerative medicine laws, which would then inspire more companies to do trials and open locations there, boost medical tourism, and grant RIKEN more government funding for other projects like their skin and tooth regeneration.

Well, I truly hope you're right; I'm the first person to admit it's absurd to root against one's own interest, but I just think that if it were the case, there would be considerably more press about it, with Big Pharma begging to license it around the world. Japan isn't traditionally considered a medical tourism destination; it doesn't even rank in the top five in Asia (South Korea being one, and Singapore - the nation with the very best medical care in the region - number two), and it's a very difficult place for foreigners to navigate culturally. It's just a really weird way to roll out what would be a paradigm-shifting protocol.

 

[Ollie]

No there aren't.

This is cope

You dont think people can afford this ? The Bugatti Divo hypercar ($5.8m) sold out (40 units) in less than 2 hours. If Riken can only offer this to 50 people in the first year they will easily fill those spaces.

The world is a poor place but there are plenty of very wealthy people who have money to burn.

 

[IncognitoMan]

Why is everyone debating between whether or not there will be a market for this at approx. $400k? Don’t you think if this group is intelligent enough to clone hair, they can figure out what a good market price for this procedure is?

Japan has 2.8 million millionaires. Let’s say only 25% suffer from hair loss. That leaves us with 700k people. Now let’s say only 25% of those care about hair loss, and we’re left with 175k. And, only 10% of those people can actually afford/want to drop $400k on this procedure. We’re now left with 17.5k people. Only half are male, which leaves us with 8,750, and only half of those males are willing to undergo the procedure. With a final number of participants being 4,375. Multiply that by $400k and you have $1.75 Billion dollar market. I think that seems pretty conservative, and it’s only limited to Japanese millionaires. There are are 6 times the number of millionaires in the United States (17,350,000).

 

[That Guy]

You dont think people can afford this ? The Bugatti Divo hypercar ($5.8m) sold out (40 units) in less than 2 hours. If Riken can only offer this to 50 people in the first year they will easily fill those spaces.

The world is a poor place but there are plenty of very wealthy people who have money to burn.

I'm sorry man, but do you not see the absurdity of your comparison?

There are a lot more people than 40 people suffering from hairloss.

Instead of a luxury sportscar, imagine that every Prius cost 5.8 million. So it costs you millions of dollars if you want to drive.

Are there "people" who can afford it? Yeah, sure — you'd probably find 100s of thousands who could, but what does that do for the rest of the BILLIONS who can't? You're not included in the amorphous quantity of "people" here.

Why is everyone debating between whether or not there will be a market for this at approx. $400k? Don’t you think if this group is intelligent enough to clone hair, they can figure out what a good market price for this procedure is?

Japan has 2.8 million millionaires. Let’s say only 25% suffer from hair loss. That leaves us with 700k people. Now let’s say only 25% of those care about hair loss, and we’re left with 175k. And, only 10% of those people can actually afford/want to drop $400k on this procedure. We’re now left with 17.5k people. Only half are male, which leaves us with 8,750, and only half of those males are willing to undergo the procedure. With a final number of participants being 4,375. Multiply that by $400k and you have $1.75 Billion dollar market. I think that seems pretty conservative, and it’s only limited to Japanese millionaires. There are are 6 times the number of millionaires in the United States (17,350,000).

Let's put forth the most realistic scenario here:

90% of those millionaires aren't going to give a sh*t about their hair.

If they do, they have transplants, drugs, and Follica next year. That will probably cost a few grand at most.

Do you really think these Jewish millionaires and sh*t are going to drop nearly half a million instead of a few grand if such is an option to them?

No. Rich people generally don't stay rich by making stupid investments and pissing away their money like that.

 

[Ollie]

I'm sorry man, but do you not see the absurdity of your comparison?

There are a lot more people than 40 people suffering from hairloss.

Instead of a luxury sportscar, imagine that every Prius cost 5.8 million. So it costs you millions of dollars if you want to drive.

Are there "people" who can afford it? Yeah, sure — you'd probably find 100s of thousands who could, but what does that do for the rest of the BILLIONS who can't? You're not included in the amorphous quantity of "people" here.

Yes but i doubt riken will be able to fulfil more than 100 people in the first year. Those spaces will easily be filled.

By year 5 it may well be 100k for the treatment. There are 10's of thousands of people - maybe even 100's that purchase a 100k car each year across the globe. Those people who can hand over 100k for a car im sure could do the same for a head of hair. I would rather spend 100k on a head of hair for life than a car as im sure most would on this forum.

 

[IncognitoMan]

Let's put forth the most realistic scenario here:

90% of those millionaires aren't going to give a sh*t about their hair.

If they do, they have transplants, drugs, and Follica next year. That will probably cost a few grand at most.

Do you really think these Jewish millionaires and sh*t are going to drop nearly half a million instead of a few grand if such is an option to them?

No. Rich people generally don't stay rich by making stupid investments and pissing away their money like that.

I was only mentioning numbers of Japanese millionaires (not sure where you got Jewish, sorry?). Also, I said only 25% care about hair loss, and only 10% of those actually would dare get this procedure.

By your scenario, if 90% of the 2.8 million Japanese millionaires didn’t care about hair, you’re left with 280k that do care. Now let’s say only half are male (which is wrong, more millionaires are male in Japan, but for your sake), we have 140k. And only 25% of those suffer from male pattern baldness, we have 35k. Say only 25% of those want the procedure, and you have 8,750... for good measure cut that in half once again, and were at the same number I provided. Now include the nearly 3.5 million Chinese millionaires, the 2 million UK millionaires, the 17.35 American millionaires, the 2 million German millionaires, and many more. Say only 0.1% of those are suffering from male pattern baldness and want/actually afford this procedure, and you’re nearing a $10 billion market. Over a 5 year period that’s $2 billion/year, and the price will begin to come down.

Cut this numbers in half and it’s still a lot. Sorry if you don’t see it that way. Also, I’m surrounded by much more wealth than you probably are, and probably more knowledgable about how millionaires think. I multiple family members who are worth over $10MM each. Not trying to flex, but just tired of reading your pessimism.

 

[Trichosan]

Interesting discussion . Perhaps we should start an economics subsection of the New Research. If I could add a different direction to the irrelevant speculation, I'd say the possibility of an advanced level entrepreneur accelerating the technology or marketing efficiency and lowering costs is a real possibility. Retailers and many other high market cap companies underestimated the internet and the existence of people like Bezos, Thiel, Zuckerberg, Musk, etc., not to mention rogue Chinese scientists itching for a buck. A couple friends, one at Amgen and one works for Genentech, agree that further advances in cellular replication and mass production are close to new breakouts. In any event, we'll see.​