Update From The God Himself - Dr. Takashi Tsuji

[Raksha]

Assuming the price of 200 - $300k is true could someone use an example of when a cosmetic or any type of surgery for that matter has gone from relatively outrageous to somewhat affordable for the average Joe? I see alot of posts putting alot of faith in the price just plummeting after a few years of being out but is this realistic?

I dont think gene sequencing is a good example.

I think genome sequencing is a great example. It literally costed 2.7 billion when it came out. It now costs less than $700.

As for cosmetic surgery the general prices have gone down 25% since 1998, but they aren't dropping much lower than a few grand. Some cosmetic surgeries have increased in price, but very few procedures cost more than $4,000.

This makes sense because you have surgeons doing work and wanting to get paid for the expensive schooling they had. Many cosmetic surgeries are also labor / time intensive, with hair transplants being the most. So it makes sense why hair transplants aren't getting much cheaper and they won't for a long time.

Now we are seeing the rise of genetic technologies and organ cloning, so it makes perfect sense that it costs $300k. We're witnessing the beginning of a new industry. As the technology improves and more complex organs are being cloned the prices will drop. However we probably won't see Tsuji's treatment go much lower than an expensive hair transplant. I could easily see it costing around $12-$15 a graft in 10-15 years.

Also we are seeing the rise of AI and this will make hair transplants easier if they can get a robot that can do it faster than a human and have it look good. Once this happens we will see prices drop for hair transplants, we'll probably still have to have real doctors for the hairline for a while though. But I imagine hair transplants in general will drop down to be similar price ranges to other cosmetic surgeries.

We are living in exciting times. I'll probably be bald by all of this, but it's still cool to see it happening.

 

[Rho Gain]

Why is everyone debating between whether or not there will be a market for this at approx. $400k? Don’t you think if this group is intelligent enough to clone hair, they can figure out what a good market price for this procedure is?

Japan has 2.8 million millionaires. Let’s say only 25% suffer from hair loss. That leaves us with 700k people. Now let’s say only 25% of those care about hair loss, and we’re left with 175k. And, only 10% of those people can actually afford/want to drop $400k on this procedure. We’re now left with 17.5k people. Only half are male, which leaves us with 8,750, and only half of those males are willing to undergo the procedure. With a final number of participants being 4,375. Multiply that by $400k and you have $1.75 Billion dollar market. I think that seems pretty conservative, and it’s only limited to Japanese millionaires. There are are 6 times the number of millionaires in the United States (17,350,000).

You forget that they claim their problem is a bottleneck - how quickly can they service that population? If they can only perform the procedure a couple dozen times a year, the number of clientele drops dramatically; if you can't get your full head until 2030, are you still interested? And in 2022 when Follica hits the market and most of those people can get a lot of hair back, and again in 2028 when Follica gets even better with novel compounds, how many more millionaires are willing to wait around for this supposed cure?

It makes. No. Sense. We all know there are new protocols on the cusp of commercialization, and yet these guys claim they have something but won't scale? It goes against all good business practices. I just don't buy it.

 

[Ollie]

You forget that they claim their problem is a bottleneck - how quickly can they service that population? If they can only perform the procedure a couple dozen times a year, the number of clientele drops dramatically; if you can't get your full head until 2030, are you still interested? And in 2022 when Follica hits the market and most of those people can get a lot of hair back, and again in 2028 when Follica gets even better with novel compounds, how many more millionaires are willing to wait around for this supposed cure?

It makes. No. Sense. We all know there are new protocols on the cusp of commercialization, and yet these guys claim they have something but won't scale? It goes against all good business practices. I just don't buy it.

Why do you believe Follica will be any better than needling and minoxidil ? They hint at one of their compounds being WNT related which if we look at samumed they got 15% in 3 months. There has been no data suggesting Follica will be getting anyone a significant amount of hair back.

As for Tsuji, with the rate of which this has all been achieved im sure in a decade the whole process will be significantly more automated.

 

[Rho Gain]

Why do you believe Follica will be any better than needling and minoxidil ? They hint at one of their compounds being WNT related which if we look at samumed they got 15% in 3 months. There has been no data suggesting Follica will be getting anyone a significant amount of hair back.

As for Tsuji, with the rate of which this has all been achieved im sure in a decade the whole process will be significantly more automated.

Well, to be honest, I don't know if it will be better because I haven't read any data from the existing needling studies that actually count hair. As far as I know, all the needling studies took pictures, not counts, so I don't think anyone can quantify how good needling is. I do know that Follica at one time many years ago claimed 25 terminal hairs per square cm, which is damn good, and depending on your personal natural density (which varies significantly) can be anywhere from one to maybe even three NWs. Are you going to say no to a Norwood? How about two? Not interested in three? Because two NWs makes me a cosmetically NW0, so yeah, I'm going to be in line for Follica when it hits the market.

And then there are the "novel" compounds they are researching, and other compounds from different companies (Samumed, etc.) that will also be available within the next few years. Follica 1.0 is going to be just the start, and Follica 2.0 won't be that far behind it. I'm just not hyped over some claimed accomplishment that costs $400k, is only administered in Japan, and will have (if it actually exists) a 10+ year waiting list when there are so many other options two or three years out and at 1/30th the price point.

But hey, more power to them; if by 2035 they've figured out how to scale and price it correctly, I'll take a look, but if I still care about hair in 15 years, I've almost certainly lost at life, so hopefully it won't matter to me at all by then.

 

[IncognitoMan]

@Rho Gain I’ve been on Finasteride for about 14 months, and seem to be maintaining, or at the least have drastically slowed my recession. I plan to wait 3 years to see where Follica, Cassiopea, Riken/Tsuji, Shiseido/Replicel, Follicum, and others are at. During that time, I will likely introduce minoxidil to help buy me more time (hopefully another 2 years). At that point, I may decide to go for an FUE hair transplant, and buy another couple of years, at which point it’ll be 2027-2028, and I’ll be 33-34. Based on how things progress with new research and technology, I can make a much more informed decision whether I can throw in the towel or continuing hoping for a “cure” (functional treatment, really). If Riken/Tsuji really pans out, I surely hope it comes down in price... or, I continue to advance well into my career and can afford the outrageous price. However, in the meantime, I’ll continue to work hard, hope, and enjoy life to the best it can offer me.

I do enjoy hearing optimism and positive news because hope helps keep spirits up, and makes hair loss slightly more bearable. It seems some people’s views are to squash hope, and expect the least so they aren’t disappointed when/if something fails. I’m sorry for those people.

 

[Rho Gain]

@Rho Gain I’ve been on Finasteride for about 14 months, and seem to be maintaining, or at the least have drastically slowed my recession. I plan to wait 3 years to see where Follica, Cassiopea, Riken/Tsuji, Shiseido/Replicel, Follicum, and others are at. During that time, I will likely introduce minoxidil to help buy me more time (hopefully another 2 years). At that point, I may decide to go for an FUE hair transplant, and buy another couple of years, at which point it’ll be 2027-2028, and I’ll be 33-34. Based on how things progress with new research and technology, I can make a much more informed decision whether I can throw in the towel or continuing hoping for a “cure” (functional treatment, really). If Riken/Tsuji really pans out, I surely hope it comes down in price... or, I continue to advance well into my career and can afford the outrageous price. However, in the meantime, I’ll continue to work hard, hope, and enjoy life to the best it can offer me.

I do enjoy hearing optimism and positive news because hope helps keep spirits up, and makes hair loss slightly more bearable. It seems some people’s views are to squash hope, and expect the least so they aren’t disappointed when/if something fails. I’m sorry for those people.

I've been on finasteride/min/keto for 15 years, and while they didn't stop my loss, they slowed it to a crawl. Some people would say my hair looks thin, others might not notice at all - I've kept my temples, I've kept my hairline, and I don't even have a bald spot on the back of my head. Can I grow it out? Nope - I've got to keep it short, so I have almost no styling options. But I do have full coverage, and given the age at which I started to thin, I am certain I'd be a high Norwood now if it weren't for the Big Three. I would strongly advise you against surgery at all costs - I am certain Follica is coming soon, and other treatments not far behind it, and if you cut up your head and leave a bunch of scare tissue, who's to say these new protocols will work in that sort of environment? If you were a higher Norwood and it was 20 years ago, sure, go for the FUE, because you're young and there's nothing on the horizon. But Q3 2019? No way - don't even think about it. Stay with what's working, focus on clean living (no smoking, no drinking, eating right and exercise - I'm convinced this does make a difference) and your career, and in three years there will be new options. There has never been a better time to go bald than now (only to be superseded by a few years from now, when a whole new crop of more efficacious treatments drop).

 

[Subigang]

I've been on finasteride/min/keto for 15 years, and while they didn't stop my loss, they slowed it to a crawl. Some people would say my hair looks thin, others might not notice at all - I've kept my temples, I've kept my hairline, and I don't even have a bald spot on the back of my head. Can I grow it out? Nope - I've got to keep it short, so I have almost no styling options. But I do have full coverage, and given the age at which I started to thin, I am certain I'd be a high Norwood now if it weren't for the Big Three. I would strongly advise you against surgery at all costs - I am certain Follica is coming soon, and other treatments not far behind it, and if you cut up your head and leave a bunch of scare tissue, who's to say these new protocols will work in that sort of environment? If you were a higher Norwood and it was 20 years ago, sure, go for the FUE, because you're young and there's nothing on the horizon. But Q3 2019? No way - don't even think about it. Stay with what's working, focus on clean living (no smoking, no drinking, eating right and exercise - I'm convinced this does make a difference) and your career, and in three years there will be new options. There has never been a better time to go bald than now (only to be superseded by a few years from now, when a whole new crop of more efficacious treatments drop).

For someone who is 20 and on route to be NW7 in a few years, where should my optimism be? Do you think there will be a NW7 -> NW1 cure commercially available in the next 10 years?

 

[That Guy]

Interesting discussion . Perhaps we should start an economics subsection of the New Research. If I could add a different direction to the irrelevant speculation, I'd say the possibility of an advanced level entrepreneur accelerating the technology or marketing efficiency and lowering costs is a real possibility.

People really need to quit with this big-brain "Anything that isn't about news straight from the source is 'irrelevant'" crap.

This isn't a news forum. If that's what you want, stay off these forums and just subscribe to company news letters or set up RSS feeds because everything else IS speculation. This is about discussion related to future hairloss treatments, and the topic of whether or not these are even going to be affordable to the general population is literally the most relevant news out of this update. So you're literally bitching about us discussing the new information.

Further, to your point, time is the most precious, non-renewable resource that there is. Most of the people who frequent these forums are young men with moderate to advanced hairloss before age 25.

It is ideal for people to marry and start families at a young age and not older. Hairloss at a young age significantly lowers your sexual market value (regardless of baseline attractiveness) and means that not only will you have a more difficult time finding a mate, but the mate you do find will likely be lower-quality (genetically and otherwise). Many of the guys here, if they ever do have children (many may not, this is already a huge problem in our era regardless) will when they are older which already carries increased genetic risks and necessitates having a younger wife to both mitigate those risks and produce multiple children.

Can you guess how many 22-year-old women are into bald men 10+ years older than them? Not many.

This, in an era where birth rates are already at record lows, relations between men and women have never been poorer, and more people are single into middle age or getting divorced than ever before.

Is the fact that, in a year or two, some of the absolute richest mother fuckers in the world could blow an amount of money most of our generation will never have at one time to get their hair back and MAYBE in 10 years the price will come down to a more affordable price supposed to be some sort of consolation to all this?

Time is not something these people have.

 

[Subigang]

People really need to quit with this big-brain "Anything that isn't about news straight from the source is 'irrelevant'" crap.

This isn't a news forum. If that's what you want, stay off these forums and just subscribe to company news letters or set up RSS feeds because everything else IS speculation. This is about discussion related to future hairloss treatments, and the topic of whether or not these are even going to be affordable to the general population is literally the most relevant news out of this update. So you're literally bitching about us discussing the new information.

Further, to your point, time is the most precious, non-renewable resource that there is. Most of the people who frequent these forums are young men with moderate to advanced hairloss before age 25.

It is ideal for people to marry and start families at a young age and not older. Hairloss at a young age significantly lowers your sexual market value (regardless of baseline attractiveness) and means that not only will you have a more difficult time finding a mate, but the mate you do find will likely be lower-quality (genetically and otherwise). Many of the guys here, if they ever do have children (many may not, this is already a huge problem in our era regardless) will when they are older which already carries increased genetic risks and necessitates having a younger wife to both mitigate those risks and produce multiple children.

Can you guess how many 22-year-old women are into bald men 10+ years older than them? Not many.

This, in an era where birth rates are already at record lows, relations between men and women have never been poorer, and more people are single into middle age or getting divorced than ever before.

Is the fact that, in a year or two, some of the absolute richest mother fuckers in the world could blow an amount of money most of our generation will never have at one time to get their hair back and MAYBE in 10 years the price will come down to a more affordable price supposed to be some sort of consolation to all this?

Time is not something these people have.

So what's the verdict? Are 20 year olds with advanced hair loss fucked? Or do they have hope?

 

[Ollie]

So what's the verdict? Are 20 year olds with advanced hair loss fucked? Or do they have hope?

If I told you you could buy a full head of hormonally resistant hair in 10 years (30 years old) would you be happy ? You likely will be able to . That’s amazing news.

 

[Subigang]

If I told you you could buy a full head of hormonally resistant hair in 10 years (30 years old) would you be happy ? You likely will be able to . That’s amazing news.

Yep this is the dream! If it's just a matter of money, I could likely get it earlier, but man I hope the technology gets there ASAP.

 

[newbiemicroneedler]

I am certain Follica is coming soon, and other treatments not far behind it, and if you cut up your head and leave a bunch of scare tissue, who's to say these new protocols will work in that sort of environment?.

Does that include microneedling?

 

[Super Metroid]

Wow, all this hype because of a Japanese blogger?

Tsuji's method still has to undergo another trial, so it is speculative at best to even assume it will come through these trials and be suitable for commercialization. How are the efficacy, safety etc? I think nobody knows yet.

If this is all true, it would be great news. It stands to reason that the initial price of the treatment would be insane, because there is always a super rich, super vain demographic that would do (pay) anything to restore their hair. When those people are sufficiently milked, prices will come down so that more average people can have the treatment as well. It might take some time to be accessible, but it feels good that the cure is at least there. From that point, other companies might be triggered to offer more competitively priced solutions in other to compete with Riken, lowering the prices even faster.

 

[Subigang]

i might have committed suicide before this comes out. not even joking

See someone don’t just say emo sh*t in a random *** forum

 

[Subigang]

Wow, all this hype because of a Japanese blogger?

Tsuji's method still has to undergo another trial, so it is speculative at best to even assume it will come through these trials and be suitable for commercialization. How are the efficacy, safety etc? I think nobody knows yet.

If this is all true, it would be great news. It stands to reason that the initial price of the treatment would be insane, because there is always a super rich, super vain demographic that would do (pay) anything to restore their hair. When those people are sufficiently milked, prices will come down so that more average people can have the treatment as well. It might take some time to be accessible, but it feels good that the cure is at least there. From that point, other companies might be triggered to offer more competitively priced solutions in other to compete with Riken, lowering the prices even faster.

I agree! Regarding the efficacy, I have high hopes but you never know

 

[OneDay_NW0]

Some days ago you said you graduated in Europe and that you can afford Tsuji before all those random fellas.

 

[Subigang]

yeah its not emo sh*t though. try being a 5'4 balding college student among all the other genetically blessed individuals day in day out, its torture and i can't endure it anymore neither do i want to

Here is just not the place man. And that is undoubtedly emo sh*t lol

 

[Rho Gain]

For someone who is 20 and on route to be NW7 in a few years, where should my optimism be? Do you think there will be a NW7 -> NW1 cure commercially available in the next 10 years?

So what's the verdict? Are 20 year olds with advanced hair loss fucked? Or do they have hope?

I think NW7-NW0 by 2030 is possible, but optimistic. To take a NW7 to a 0 is probably more likely within 15 years. That being said, it will probably be possible to take a NW7 to a NW3 within ten years, and maybe within five, and that's plenty of hair for what most of you guys are so worried about - women.

Let's be honest here; the whole hair issue for most forum members is an incel thing. You're not getting laid, and you blame your hair - and you're probably right. That's not to say you couldn't get laid if you were more charismatic and/or had more money, but that's not easy for your average millennial who has been brought up on soy and video games. But what you early 20-somethings don't realize is that life doesn't end at 30 - that happens at 40. This means that if you're a NW2 at 35, you still have plenty of time to enjoy yourself. That Guy is right in saying that, optimally, you want to find a quality mate by 25, but that doesn't mean you can't find that person at 35; where I live - a gigantic, globally-important city - men with means routinely date and marry women 10+ years younger than themselves (I haven't date a girl my own age since college - my last gf was in her twenties and eight years younger than me). Besides, in these debouched, decedent times we live in, it doesn't matter if you have Jesus's hair and Bezos's bank, you're not going to find a 25 year-old 10 tits-on-a-stick virgin - they just do not exist in the 21st century. So hang in there - it's coming.

Does that include microneedling?

I don't know, which is why I don't needle. My totally uninformed opinion says reasonable needling (ie., not every day at such a significant depth that your head looks like a horror movie) probably won't have any adverse risk on future protocols, but since I still have a lot of hair, the risk isn't worth it to me. People who discount Follica and claim it's "just needling and minoxidil" don't appreciate what they've been doing for the last 15 years; they have researched every factor - depth, frequency, windows, etc. - to produce a protocol that is optimized for maximum benefit and fewest drawbacks. That's the difference between Follica and someone at home using a needle stamp on themselves, and that's why Follica will be so much better.

 

[Rho Gain]

its not emo sh*t and i have been considering it for over 3 years actually. the only reason i am still here are my parents

I can't think of a worse time to shuffle off this mortal coil. The amazing advances in everything - from biotech to AI to robotics and more - are a few decades away. Every ill you think you suffer from will be cured in the next 25 years. You say you're short? You will be able to manipulate your own genome in any way you want in a matter of decades. If you're in you're early 20's, it's quite possible you could live as long as you like - functional immortality will be achieved by 2100. Aren't you curious about whether or not there are other advanced civilizations in the universe? We're going to find out within the next 50 years. As bad as you may think you have it, anything - literally ANYTHING - you can think of will be achievable before the end of this century. Personally, even in my darkest hour I still get hyped over the opportunity to see what living a real-life sci-fi film is going to be like. Imagine you were born 100 years ago - how mundane would your life had been (except when it was punctuated by horrific, world wars)? Dude, focus on your career (you need to make MONEY - lots of it) and your body, and the rest will take care of itself.

 

[Subigang]

I think NW7-NW0 by 2030 is possible, but optimistic. To take a NW7 to a 0 is probably more likely within 15 years. That being said, it will probably be possible to take a NW7 to a NW3 within ten years, and maybe within five, and that's plenty of hair for what most of you guys are so worried about - women.

Let's be honest here; the whole hair issue for most forum members is an incel thing. You're not getting laid, and you blame your hair - and you're probably right. That's not to say you couldn't get laid if you were more charismatic and/or had more money, but that's not easy for your average millennial who has been brought up on soy and video games. But what you early 20-somethings don't realize is that life doesn't end at 30 - that happens at 40. This means that if you're a NW2 at 35, you still have plenty of time to enjoy yourself. That Guy is right in saying that, optimally, you want to find a quality mate by 25, but that doesn't mean you can't find that person at 35; where I live - a gigantic, globally-important city - men with means routinely date and marry women 10+ years younger than themselves (I haven't date a girl my own age since college - my last gf was in her twenties and eight years younger than me). Besides, in these debouched, decedent times we live in, it doesn't matter if you have Jesus's hair and Bezos's bank, you're not going to find a 25 year-old 10 tits-on-a-stick virgin - they just do not exist in the 21st century. So hang in there - it's coming.



I don't know, which is why I don't needle. My totally uninformed opinion says reasonable needling (ie., not every day at such a significant depth that your head looks like a horror movie) probably won't have any adverse risk on future protocols, but since I still have a lot of hair, the risk isn't worth it to me. People who discount Follica and claim it's "just needling and minoxidil" don't appreciate what they've been doing for the last 15 years; they have researched every factor - depth, frequency, windows, etc. - to produce a protocol that is optimized for maximum benefit and fewest drawbacks. That's the difference between Follica and someone at home using a needle stamp on themselves, and that's why Follica will be so much better.

Well I promise you I’m not an incel, just a young guy with a girlfriend who wants to know my rapid hair loss isn’t a death sentence forever. If I can go NW7->NW1/2 by 30 years old (even if it’s expensive), I would be stoked. But I have to be honest, I think Follica is not something to be following. Sure, it’ll probably work great, but it’s just rebranded minoxidil + needling, which actually does work great. Thus the only thing I’m following is hair cloning, the only viable option for a real NW1->NW7